The 2016 season is going to be an interesting one for the Bengals, to say the least. They set the bar pretty high after finishing the 2015 regular season with a 12-4 record. But, a ton of offseason personnel changes mean that reaching those heights again could be quite a challenge.
In many cases, the argument can be made that the Bengals upgraded certain positions and gave the roster a fresh, new look. There were a lot more problems with the old roster than their 12-4 record would suggest, such as the lackluster play from certain members of their offensive line, or issues with finishing tackles (120 in 2015 alone). So, the reshuffle could be seen as a good thing.
However, the argument can also be made that it's going to be hard to repeat the success of 2015 due to the sheer number of changes happening at once. It could take time for the new personnel to gel and, by the time they do, it could be too late to put together a great record.
The schedule
Week 1
Sunday Sep. 11 at New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ 1:00 p.m. ET
Week 2
Sunday Sep. 18 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA 1:00 p.m. ET
Week 3
Sunday Sep. 25 vs Denver Broncos
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH 1:00 p.m. ET
Week 4
Thursday Sep. 29 vs Miami Dolphins
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH 8:25 p.m. ET
Week 5
Sunday Oct. 9 at Dallas Cowboys
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 6
Sunday Oct. 16 at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA 1:00 p.m. ET
Week 7
Sunday Oct. 23 vs Cleveland Browns
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH 1:00 p.m. ET
Week 8
Sunday Oct. 30 vs Washington Redskins
Wembley Stadium, London, UK 9:30 a.m. ET
Week 9
- BYE -
Week 10
Monday Nov. 14 at New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ 8:30 p.m. ET
Week 11
Sunday Nov. 20 vs Buffalo Bills
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH 1:00 p.m. ET
Week 12
Sunday Nov. 27 at Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD 1:00 p.m. ET
Week 13
Sunday Dec. 4 vs Philadelphia Eagles
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH 1:00 p.m. ET
Week 14
Sunday Dec. 11 vs Cleveland Browns
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH 1:00 p.m. ET
Week 15
Sunday Dec. 18 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH 8:30 p.m. ET
Week 16
Saturday Dec. 24 at Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX 8:25 p.m. ET
Week 17
Sunday Jan. 1 vs Baltimore Ravens
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH 1:00 p.m. ET
The argument for regression
The Bengals lost Reggie Nelson, Hue Jackson, Vance Joseph, Jay Hayes, Matt Burke, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Andre Smith, Wallace Gilberry and Emmanuel Lamur to other teams this offseason. On top of that, they cut backup contributor A.J. Hawk and have yet to re-sign Leon Hall. That's a lot of important personnel to lose in one offseason after the team did so well the year before.
The situation kind of reminds you of the debacle that was the San Francisco 49ers' 2015 offseason. Granted, they were 8-8 the year before they lost so many key coaches and players in the offseason, but they still ended up regressing pretty significantly in 2015 to a 5-11 record. Adjusting their situation to the Bengals' current situation, it would stand to reason that the team has lost enough pieces to end up somewhere in the 9-7 range this year.
It also doesn't help that the team starts the season with an extremely tough three game stretch that they might not be ready for quite yet. It wouldn't be a huge shock for them to start the season 0-3, at which point things could start to devolve from there.
The argument for improvement
Let's think back to the start of the Dalton-Green era in 2011 when the Bengals virtually reset the offense by trading Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson and firing Bob Bratkowski. They were projected to be the very worst team in the league that year, but the team rallied together and managed to squeak into the playoffs with a 9-7 record and the AFC's No. 6 seed.
Then in 2014, the Bengals lost both coordinators Mike Zimmer and Jay Gruden to head coaching positions with other teams. They also lost starting defensive end Michael Johnson and interim starting tackle Anthony Collins. Once again, they were expected to regress significantly, but they still managed to make the playoffs. Their 10-5-1 record was only a half game worse than their 2013 finish.
At this point, it seems like the Bengals have a good enough system in place to weather any kind of adversity thrown their way, and what we saw this offseason isn't anything particularly new. On top of that, they added Brandon LaFell, Karlos Dansby and a new draft class, plus on the coaching staff Bill Lazor, Kevin Coyle, Jacob Burney and Jim Haslett to fill the coaching holes left by others.
Not to mention, they promoted highly successful quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese to offensive coordinator and are expected to promote talented first round pick Cedric Ogbuehi to Smith's vacant right tackle spot. There might be a few growing pains at first, but, if the Bengals can get through the tough three game stretch at the beginning of the season featuring the Jets' high powered defense, the Steelers' high powered offense, and the world champion Denver Broncos, it should signal the fact that this team is ready for anything the NFL throws their way.
Conclusion
Personally, I am more inclined to agree with the argument that this team can improve over their 2015 season. On top of the reasons previously mentioned, don't forget that most of the biggest contributors from 2015 are still with the team. A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, Andy Dalton, Andrew Whitworth, Giovani Bernard, Adam Jones, Geno Atkins, and Vontaze Burfict all had impressive seasons in 2015 and all return this year looking to improve on last season's success.
Nearly every year since Dalton and Green joined the team in 2011, the Bengals' record has improved by one win. Granted, there was a bit of a lull in 2014, but you could blame injuries that season as much as you could blame personnel changes. If there's one thing that this Bengals team has proven it can do time and time again, it's improve from past mistakes. In 2016, I'm expecting that trend to continue with a fast start and only the occasional few bumps in the road.
Final record: 13-3; AFC's no. 1 seed