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Sporting News' Shallow Analysis Yields Prediction of Last Place


The Sporting News Today ran a "Camp Countdown" story today on the Bengals that had multiple themes:

  • There is no such thing as a short leash with the Bengals; Marvin Lewis is safe.
  • Without Carson Palmer, opponents don't fear the passing game.
  • According to an opponent, Marvin Lewis prefers the 4-3 defense but keeps drafting linebackers better suited to the 3-4. The defense can't stop the run, can't rush the passer and has no identity.
  • Unless Carson can "energize" the offense, the Bengals will again finish last in the division.
  • There is not enough stability on defense to ensure success.

I am actually surprised by the shallow analysis by authors Gerry Dulac, Vinnie Iyer, and Chick Ludwig.  Putting it all on Carson's back or a lack of stability on defense is so easy, but the article fails to cite any off-season upgrades or probe the implications of the lack of an established running back, the inexperience on the offensive line, etc.

On a positive note, the article includes a boxed quote from CBS analyst Phil Simms, who said, "I would be leery of this team.  They stayed competitive last year, even though they didn't have a healthy Carson Palmer and their offense was dreadful.  You look at how hard they played - and with passion.  It's possible they surprise some people this season."  I think that aside from Lapham, Phil may have just became my favorite analyst.

Unfortunately, I think Bengals fans see a last place finish in the cards.  I see that the team is now running ads for ticket packages.  I recently donated two season tickets to a charity for auction and the selling price was less than the price of one ticket alone.  I guess I could blame the economy but it is so much more fun to blame Mike Brown.

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Charting Contracts for the Bengals 2009 Rookie Class

As we wrote in a preview post, the Bengals tend to sign a majority of their picks in the week leading up to training camp. However, sometimes they do things differently. Like signing four of their 11 draft picks in June. The following is a chart that we'll (hopefully) update when the team signs their rookies.

Pick Round Rookie Position Years Base Signing Total
1 1 Andre Smith OT        
2 2 Rey Maualuga LB        
3 3 Michael Johnson DE        
4 3 Chase Coffman TE        
5 4 Jonathan Luigs C        
6 5 Kevin Huber P        
7 6 Morgan Trent DB Four $1.750 M $112,000 $1.862 M
8 6 Bernard Scott RB Four $1.750 M $77,500 $1.828 M
9 7 Fui Vakapuna FB        
10 7 Clinton McDonald DT Four $1.750 M $39,000 $1.789 M
11 7 Freddie Brown WR Four $1.750 M $37,588 $1.787 M

Dates of Signings:

June 16: Morgan Trent
June 18: Freddie Brown
June 20: Bernard Scott
June 22: Clinton McDonald

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Bengals offensive line is a question about inexperience

B.J. Bethal writes in response to Dave's optimistic post review, "can anyone find the depth chart and name one quality offensive lineman on the roster?" One must define quality. Does quality mean Pro Bowl? Or does it mean a lineman that could start with other teams? What about Andrew Whitworth? Could Bobbie Williams be quality? Even Anthony Collins' brief stint as the starting left tackle were quality enough performances -- and he's projected as the team's first backup offensive tackle. There is quality there. The better question is if the 2009 starting lineup will bring quality performances among the team's offensive line.

But the question isn't about quality right now. The issue is wondering if inexperience will transform into a collective quality.

Williams is the only lineman projected to start at the same spot he started when last season kicked off. Nate Livings is a leading candidate to start at left guard, where he started the final six games last season. Whitworth hasn't started at left tackle since the third week in the 2007 season (though he did take snaps at left tackle against the Eagles in 2008). Kyle Cook has no career starts. Andre Smith has yet to sign his first NFL contract and Anthony Collins -- the tackle that would likely start over Smith if contract negotiations are drawn out -- made all of six career starts at left tackle. The following chart is easy enough to read. Games started isn't total NFL starts; it's games started at that position (Bengals career). Total starts is based on NFL career.

Position Projected Starter Games Started Total Starts
Left Tackle Andrew Whitworth 13 38
Left Guard Nate Livings 6 6
Center Kyle Cook 0 0
Right Guard Bobbie Williams 77 89
Right Tackle Andre Smith 0 0
  Anthony Collins 0 6

Based simply on position projections that we're led to believe, the Bengals have 96 games worth of starting experience -- however, 80% of that experience is Bobbie Williams. We knew the Bengals were to become an inexperienced offensive line when Eric Ghiaciuc, Stacy Andrews and Levi Jones departed (not offered contract, left for Philly, released). Center Jonathan Luigs was drafted alongside Smith to join Collins and Livings with the team's dedicated effort to rebuild the offensive line around veterans Whitworth and Williams -- who is entering the final year under contract.

Here's the biggest key of all. With the amount of inexperience starting on the Bengals offensive line, I believe it's an unrealistic expectation that the Bengals will become the offensive line of 2005 where Carson Palmer had a career year and Rudi Johnson set the franchise rushing record. It might be unrealistic to expect a 17-sack allowed season like 2007. There will be growing pains. And it's very likely that the Bengals will have to move personnel between now and the first game of the regular season in order to put together the best fit.

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Bengals draft picks typically sign in the 11th hour

In writing notes for the Inside Slant, FoxSports.com writes that "negotiations also have not started with second-round pick Rey Maualuga."

It's pretty common that draft picks tend to sign late in the offseason -- like right before training camp starts. Last year, the Bengals officially signed five draft picks on the day players reported to camp: Jerome Simpson, Pat Sims, Andre Caldwell, Anthony Collins and Corey Lynch. Most of them had agreed to deals beforehand, electing to actually sign when they arrived to Cincinnati for training camp. The Bengals signed Kenny Irons, Jeff Rowe, Matt Toeaina, Dan Santucci and Chinedum Ndukwe a day before the 2007 training camp. The Bengals reported to training camp in 2006 on July 29 and on that day (or the day before), the Bengals signed Andrew Whitworth, Domata Peko, Ryan McNeal and Ethan Kilmer. To say that the Bengals, and other teams, wait until the 11th hour with a majority of their picks, would be an understatement.

However, "team officials foresee no problems in signing their middle- to late-round picks. It's the first-round pick though that continues to be a concern as the team looks to be preparing for a long standoff with Andre Smith."

Joy.

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Paul Alexander's Camp isn't Eric Mangini's "Magic Bus Ride"

Cincinnati Bengals' rookie center Jonathan Luigs, right, blocks for quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan as they run a play during football practice in Cincinnati on Friday June 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Tom Uhlman)

More photos » by Tom Uhlman - AP

14 days ago: Cincinnati Bengals' rookie center Jonathan Luigs, right, blocks for quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan as they run a play during football practice in Cincinnati on Friday June 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Tom Uhlman)

PFT's Mike Florio has issue with Bengals offensive line coach, who is a co-director for a youth football camp in Bloomington, Illinois and asking rookies to attend the camp to help. Florio writes that "it’s no different than Browns coach Eric Mangini’s magic bus to Hartford," because, as he references a Randy Kindred piece, “Alexander has made it a tradition for Bengals rookies to work the camp.”

The problem with the wording is that not all Bengals rookies are asked to attend. It's just rookies on the offensive line, as evident that Kindred's piece references only Andre Smith and Jonathan Luigs. In fact, if Florio reads the next sentence in Kindred's piece, he'll see that "every lineman to eventually play for him in Cincinnati has come to Bloomington as a rookie." Now, this is a problem? Now, we're comparing this to the "Mangini magic bus"? Technically, yea, it is different. Only two Bengals rookies attended. Furthermore, the bus ride was went ten boring hours. Luigs and Smith drove across one state (technically across two state lines... Ohio/Indiana and Indiana/Illinois). Furthermore, look at the quotes by unnamed sources regarding the story on Mangini.

  • "It’s a sophisticated form of hazing."
  • "It’s voluntary, [but] it’s B.S. voluntary,"
  • "That’s f–ked up."

So let's recap. It wasn't a 10-hour bus ride. It wasn't all of the rookies -- just Alexander's rookies. And let's be honest, wouldn't we, and everyone else in the world, rather have Smith hanging out with Alexander than doing nothing before signing his rookie contract? So as Officer Barbrady says, "Move along folks, nothing to see here."

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The Bengals Feel Optimistic and Confident

There is a feeling in the air that has put a positive vibe in the Bengals locker room.  Chad Ochocinco has proclaimed "we are going to the playoffs".  Carson Palmer is comparing last season's feeling in the locker room to how "confident" this team feels this year.  We know that Carson chooses his words wisely, never trying to inflame a situation.  But Chad has a reputation for taking a stick and smacking the hornets' nest hoping not to get stung.  These recent statements show how confident and optimistic they are.   I, too, am an optimist; my wife will vouch for that.  But folks, this is the Bengals.

Should we, the fans, be as optimistic as the team we support?  Should we go around boasting how the Bengals are going to make the playoffs and go to the Super Bowl before training camp has even opened?  I will leave that up to you to decide.  But for me, I reserve the right to hold back my optimism; this is because of the history the team has established over the past decade and half.  

The Bengals were active in the offseason making a number of changes to the roster in hopes of improving a team that makes the playoffs when the moon and stars align just right.  Were the changes during the offseason good enough to support this optimism?  I think so, but that is only on paper.  Once things start on the field, this may tell a different story.

Despite not resigning T.J. Houshmandzadeh (and T.J. will be missed) they were able to sign a viable replacement in Laveranous Coles from the New York Jets.  He had a good season last year catching 70 passes scoring 7 times, leading his team in that category.  His longest play last season was 54 yards.  His physical toughness has been typified as he led the league early in his career with 104 consecutive starts that ended mid-season 2007.  Expect his number of catches to increase along with his number of TD's because of defenses looking to double cover Chad.

One of the more surprising moves was the signing of Tank Johnson from the Dallas Cowboys, who was released after a subpar season.  The word though on Tank and his struggle at Dallas is that the style of defense was not to his liking as they run a 3-4 style of defense, versus the 4-3 system that both Bengals run along with the Chicago Bears (where Tank made his reputation as a defensive force).  Putting him along side emerging Domata Peko could make the defensive front more formidable then previous seasons. 

Also to help a defense that was starting to gel last season was the signing of Roy Williams, also from the Cowboys.  The Bengals defensive coordinator, Mike Zimmer, was Williams's first defensive coordinator at Dallas.  Williams was a 5 time Pro Bowler before suffering a fractured forearm early last season.  His last full season, 2007, Williams was credited with 92 tackles, of which 73 were solo.  He may become the run stopping safety that Bengals have been looking for.

What I consider the biggest surprise of the offseason was the drafting of Rey Maualuga, former USC teammate of Keith Rivers.  He could become a force that the other teams who passed on him may grow to regret.  He came out of college as a highly touted linebacker who is expected to challenge the incumbents for playing time.  With Maualuga playing alongside Keith Rivers, they could provide a defensive line backing corps that should make the opposing offense's game plan around them.

But there are a couple areas of concern that should cause caution in displaying unbridled optimism - that is with the offensive line and Carson's elbow.  Returning starters from last season's team are Andrew Whitworth and Bobbie Williams.  To help with the offensive line, they drafted Andre Smith who should start but lacks experience with the offense.  Currently the Bengals have only 2 centers on their roster with a total of 5 years experience between them, which could leave Carson vulnerable to up the middle blitzes.  So the Bengals have a bit of a dilemma.  Do they move Whitworth who has some experience with the center position or do they go with the inexperience of Dan Santucci or Kyle Cook?  Whatever the decision is, the concern will be for them to keep Carson from taking too many hits or giving up to many sacks.  If that is to occur, it could be a rough season for Palmer and company.

Carson has proclaimed his elbow healed without surgery and that he is throwing pain free.  That all sounds good.  But right now he is on a pitch count and not throwing as many passes in practice as he may have done in the past.  This may be a preventive measure now, but come time for the start of the season, he may have to throw more often which may inflame the elbow again.  And if this happens and he is forced to sit, the offense will suffer just as it did last season due to J.T. O'Sullivan's lack of experience with Bob Bratkowski's offense. 

On paper, the Bengals look good.  But don't all of the teams in the league prior to the start of the regular season.  I like the fact that the Bengals feel confident and optimistic.  That shows they are excited about the future and may have forgotten the past.  But we have seen this before when expectations are high and the Bengals feel confident that they can match those expectations.  Then the team somehow gets snake bit and they fall out of the playoff picture before mid season.  Heartache then sets in for us fans when reality hits with the disappointment of another season of suffering.  Yes, I did say I am an optimist and my wife will gladly answer anyone who challenges that.  But I am also a realist and I will wait until mid-season before I start buying into the vibe that Carson and Chad are selling.

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When Bad Karma Attacks; introducing "Crap Breaks 2009"

Let me tell you about a 24 hour period in which I'm calling "Crap Breaks '09". On Thursday night, Cincinnati (at least the northern part) got these massive storms that rolled through. Lightening flashed like an uncoordinated strobe light. Thunder was like endless mortar shells dropping into the Ardennes Forest. Trees leaned like being pressed by the hand of God. It was crazy. It was the start of "Crap Breaks '09".

The power blipped Thursday night. It didn't die; just bounced. Everything shutdown and came back on within two breaths. My desktop computer didn't, sitting with a pitch black monitor and no life support. Pushing the power button didn't work. It was dead. I replaced the power supply. Nothing. I removed all of the components save for the critical parts to make it run. Nothing. Computadora muerta, as Chad would say. The desktop I have has been in service since 2001 -- which is an amazing life-span for any computer -- and it's finally dead. In truth, it's kind of a blessing. You know what I'm talking about. A television breaks, you go out and buy something better; excuses that allow you to make choices that were otherwise unavailable to you. Me? I bought all brand new components for a desktop computer, with parts in mind to create a home entertainment system.

That wasn't it. While I was trying to figure out what was wrong with my system, I plugged in the vacuum cleaner to sweep out the dust inside the computer. When I turned it on, nothing. Aspirador muerto, as Chad would say. Now the vacuum wasn't plugged into the wall, so it didn't likely die during the storms. Either way, that's two things I found broken on Thursday that I have to repair (or have repaired).

After all that, I still had a bounce in my step. Things could be worse. After work, I pulled into the driveway, flung my laptop case over my right shoulder and opened the front door. First thing I want to do: turn on the air conditioning. It's been hot and stuffy lately in Cincinnati, so it makes sense that I would go straight the A/C and crank the sonuvabitch on. Nothing. Acondicionador de aire muerto, as Chad would say. Luckily I live in an apartment complex, so the work and cost to repair the air conditioning isn't on me.

Talk about karma. I'm just waiting for my legs to accidently fall off at this point.

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Bengals fans haven't gone anywhere, we're just broke; Carson Palmer just wants to throw

+ This Monday, the Cincinnati Bengals will start selling ticket packs for 2009, the site announced on Thursday. The two packs will be broken down to four regular season home games each, ranging from $256 to $328 per pack.

ORANGE PACK:  Sept. 13 vs. Denver (regular season home opener), Oct. 25 vs. Chicago, Nov. 29 vs. Cleveland and Dec. 6 vs. Detroit.

BLACK PACK: Sept. 27 vs. Pittsburgh, Oct. 18 vs. Houston, Nov. 8 vs. Baltimore and Dec. 27 vs. Kansas City.

We can only assume that last Saturday's walk in the park, while watching the team practice, didn't prompt as many season ticket purchases as the team would have liked. If the four-game packs don't sell out, then it's likely their home-stretch of panic finalizes with two-game and single-game tickets later. So the blackout watch is on.

Paul Daugherty says, "I would urge you to take a massive pass on that. But I'm not one to tell people how to spend their money." At 1:30 AM on Friday, the really tired Chick Ludwig writes the never before used headline, "Bengals fans may be a little fed up."

My favorites are comments:

"No thanks…I’d rather enjoy myself reading a book or playing video games. I’ve given up as a fan."

"I cannot be a Bengals fan again until Mikey boy is in diapers in an Arizona rest home. Losing just hurts too much."

"I quit cheering for the bengals when they all started having serious trouble staying out of jail."

"I am just tired of it all. Every year same old story. Lose lose and lose, arrest, arrest, arrest."

So the question is this. Are you glad those people aren't fans anymore? Or do you laugh like I do that non-Bengals fans comment on an article that's clearly about the Bengals?

+ How is Carson Palmer going to build his arm strength?

“Throw,” Palmer said. “It’s just like when a track guy needs to get faster. You don’t do 5,000 squats, you run and run some more. To get your arm in shape you throw and continue to throw. So I will be throwing all summer long as well as in training camp.”

Apparently even Gods of the Golden Arm need work.

Moving on.

James Walker's AFC North mailbag has all Bengals. Say what?!

The New York Jets claimed former Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Mario Urrutia on Thursday.

KC Joyner says that the Bengals will see a significant improvement in the overall rushing productivity in 2009.

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Ocho Vs Merriman: The Twitter Wars

Ochochild_medium

One thing's for certain, Chad has taken to the Twitter craze like a fish to water.  He loves his fans, especially the female followers and he apparently loves the immediacy his Tweet habits offer -- something his "train of thought" posts and responses indicate. While he may have the best follow-to-followers ratio in the world, to his credit, Chad does correspond with people, unlike a lot of other celebrity profiles out there.

Like any good innovator, he's also found another use for the flavor-of-the-month of social media site:  trash-talking his opponentsJust ask Shawne Merriman.

Continue reading this post »

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Bengals Training Camp schedule; Andre Smith finds his way (eventually); rookies could dictate teams successes

The Cincinnati Bengals released their 2009 Training Camp schedule on Wednesday -- the most boring day of the week without Lost. The first session starts Friday, July 31, with their concluding session held on Monday August 17 (aka, best Monday of the year). The team's Intrasquad Scrimmage kickoffs at 6:30 p.m. on August 7. The Black-Orange Mock Game takes place the following afternoon.

Gil Brandt is liking the Bengals in 2009. His main argument is that the Bengals "had more starters lost to injury last year than any other team in the league." I bet that just boils those that hate it when people make excuses for Mike Brown the Bengals. The injury excuse. Is there anything worse?

Andre Smith got lost. Let's just file this under 'honest mistakes' happen and sometimes things happen.

Andre Smith’s adventurous offseason took another unexpected turn Tuesday. This time, the Outland Trophy winner and Cincinnati Bengals’ first-round draft pick got back on track relatively soon. | NFL page

Scheduled to help with the Midwest Lineman’s Camp at Illinois Wesleyan, the No. 6 overall pick out of Alabama took the long route to Bloomington. Ultimately, his search led him to a gas station.

“I said, ‘How far is Bloomington?’” said Smith, a 6-foot-4, 340-pound offensive tackle. “They said, ‘Which Bloomington?’ I went, ‘Ahhh, don’t tell me that.’”

It turns out Smith was closer to Bloomington, Ind., than our Bloomington. Thus, he arrived at IWU at 4:30 p.m., just as the second of Tuesday’s three sessions wrapped up.

If the Bengals are looking at free agency for any offensive linemen that will provide immediate help, then, ironically, it's probably Levi Jones.

Carson Palmer offers a little bit of advice for Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo:

"If Tony just follows what he says and listens to him, he's going to have a huge year," Palmer said during an ESPN Radio interview.

The Bengals are one of five teams in which their season could hinge on how their rookies perform.

Like the Bills, the Bengals have a certain wide receiver who commands a great deal of attention and is presumed to hold the key to the team's fortunes. But Chad Ochocinco is a smaller part of the equation than the Bengals' offensive line. And the line absolutely needs first-round choice Andre Smith to be ready to step in at offensive tackle. Carson Palmer has to have have sufficient time to make the most of Ochocinco, newcomer Laveranues Coles and other receivers.

Smith is dogged by questions about his immaturity and there is speculation that he might not be under contract soon enough to participate fully in training camp, which figures to be an absolute must given the steep learning curve for an NFL offensive tackle. The Bengals' defense needs a big year from second-rounder Rey Maualuga, a big-hitting linebacker who should help against the run.

James Walker wrote "10 things that I learned" during his minicamp wrap. Three of them were about the Bengals -- team getting meaner, Chad Johnson is back, as is Carson Palmer (in a much different way).

10. Bengals are getting meaner

Analysis: Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis set the tone early with his team motto for 2009: "Fight back!" It's fitting because the Bengals have a lot to prove this year, especially with newfound expectations. The offense is trying to prove it can return to form with a healthy quarterback in Carson Palmer, and the defense is out to prove last year's solid performance wasn't a fluke. The result was multiple team fights and plenty of shoving and jawing during Cincinnati's three-day minicamp. When I joked with several players afterward that they're fighting too early and need to save it for cameras when "Hard Knocks" films training camp, one player hinted it was just the beginning. As long as no injuries occur, this could be good in the long run when the Bengals play tough rivals such as the Ravens and Steelers.

4. Ochocinco is back

Analysis: Cincinnati receiver Chad Ochocinco did something different this offseason: He stayed quiet. No one, including the Bengals, knew what he was up to until recently. It turns out Ochocinco worked extremely hard in Los Angeles to get back to his Pro Bowl form. Minus a few drops, he was clearly the most explosive receiver that I've seen in all four minicamps this offseason. Against a pretty good Bengals secondary, Ochocinco got behind the defense plenty of times for big plays and ran cat-quick short and intermediate routes. If he remains this motivated throughout the entire season, Ochocinco could be a problem for opponents once again this year.

3. Palmer is healthy, sharp

Analysis: As Ochocinco often says, there is not a No. 85 without No. 9. It wouldn't matter how hard Ochocinco worked this offseason if Palmer cannot remain healthy and upright this season. Palmer says his elbow is 100 percent after rest and rehab. The Bengals are being cautious by keeping him on a pitch count, but the football is accurate and zips like usual when he does throw in practices. Palmer has the potential to impact the AFC North more than any injured player from 2008, which is why many feel the Bengals have sleeper potential.

There's other things about the Steelers, Browns and Ravens. But, yea.

Carson Palmer broke into Pete Prisco's "Top 50".

Coming off shoulder problems, he's back throwing again, which is why he's this high. When he's healthy, he might be even higher. Bashers take note: Brady stays in the second spot coming off his injury, so Palmer stays this high.

For those of you that are newer to the site, one of my biggest pet peeves are lists about individual players. God, I hate them. There's nothing more useless than a list. Nothing supports it with substance, other than opinion. I don't have a problem with people that do them. That's their gig, their thing. Still I hate them. And while you read about my total disdain about lists, please don't avoid the fact that I'll reference other people's lists all the time. It makes me a better person for it. Clashing with things that I hate. Whatever.

Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis will be on hand (and is a speaker) Saturday while London High School honors native Dick LeBeau.

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