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Cedric Benson falls to third in the league; Daniel Coats leads NFL with five drops

In the third and fourth quarter, Cedric Benson ran four times for 10 yards rushing. What? That's it. How do the Bengals take the leading rusher in the NFL and, by in large, neutralize him with the play-calling? Maybe it's simple. You could argue that it's understandable that the Bengals were somewhat dismissive with the running game, sporting an 11-point deficit with 2:29 left in the third quarter. But there's a lot of time left. Keep establishing the run game. I agree. And yes, I converse with myself. A lot. However, the Bengals were struggling. In the third quarter, the offense recorded two first downs -- both by penalty. The Bengals defense was on the field for 11 minutes and 11 seconds. There just wasn't any rhythm because the offense went three and out twice and gift wrapped a fumble with 10:13 left in the third quarter. And, as a result, Cedric Benson had his worst outing of the season.

Adrian Peterson picked up 143 yards on 22 carries against the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday to retake the league lead by a whopping 93 yards rushing over Cedric Benson. Chris Johnson, now the league's second-leading rusher, also had a monster game for a team that was utterly destroyed, rushing for 128 yards on 17 carries.

Category Stat Rank
Yards Rushing 531 3rd
Touchdowns Rushing 4 t-7th
Rushing First Downs 22 6th
Carries 127 1st
10-yard or more rushes 14 t-3rd
Amount of times stuffed 10 t-12th
Yards Rushing on First and Ten 248 5th
Conversions on Third-<3 71.4% (5/7) 13th
Yards / Carry: Carries 11-20 4.4 14th
Yards / Carry: After 21 carries 4.2 7th

Passes Dropped. Of the top 24 players that have dropped the most passes, four are Cincinnati Bengals players. Thankfully, we're not alone. The Cleveland Browns have four players in the top-24 also. Who are the Bengals players?

Player Drops Rank
Daniel Coats 5 t-1st
Laveranues Coles 4 t-6th
Cedric Benson 3 t-12th
Chad Ochocinco 3 t-12th

Targets: Chad Ochocinco is the most targeted receiver on the Bengals with 53.

Stats from Stats.com

19 comments  |  0 recs |

Carson Palmer is 6-3 when starting against Baltimore Ravens

It never stops at Cincy Jungle. We're a train. We chug. We cho-cho. It's an effort to get you, the reader, from doing what really matters. You know, like working. What's better than working? Reading and talking on Cincy Jungle, of course. Now we're through with the Cleveland Browns, we can hit the final stretch of our three-game intra-division gauntlet. So far, we've passed (barely). Now, the Bengals take on a team that I've considered to be the best in the NFL. Then again, I made that conclusion while the Ravens were pounding the Browns into submission.

We'll be talking to Baltimore Beatdown once the week unfolds. I did read this piece from Ravens Examiner Tony Wisniewski, who writes that the Ravens don't have anything close to the defense they've had. Especially this bit:

3.  The Ravens' secondary is not as good without Jim Leonhard.  Ed Reed can't roam free to make plays, simply because Dawan Landry is a liability in pass coverage. 

4.  Dominique Foxworth is not a shutdown corner.  And, it's quite possible that the Ravens over-paid him.  But more importantly, new defensive coordinator Greg Mattison has to do a better job working with the personnel that he has.  To leave Foxworth in single-coverage against Randy Moss is an amateur move that even experienced Madden players wouldn't do.

5.  According to many major media outlets, via the power rankings, the Ravens entered New England as the top-ranked team in the NFL.  Today, they have dropped to somewhere in the range of fourth-seventh.  The media assumed that the Ravens still boasted an elite defense to go along with all-of-a-sudden potent offense.  But that's an oversight by the realm of national media.  Most analysts do not watch the Ravens week in an week out.  The truth is, the Ravens defense is outstanding against the run, but awful against the pass.  Partly because of the secondary, partly because of bad play-calls, mostly because of the lack of pass-rush from the defensive line.

While the Ravens have looked pretty good this year, I admit, that I'm feeling a little more comfortable playing the Ravens than I did the Steelers two weeks ago. And I don't know why. The Bengals have always seemed to match up well against the Ravens, especially Carson Palmer.

Game   Date Loc. Comp Att Yards TDs Int
9 L, 10-17 9/7/08 Away 9 24 94 0 1
8 W, 21-7 11/11/07 Away 23 34 271 0 0
7 W, 27-20 9/10/07 Home 20 32 194 2 0
6 W, 13-7 11/30/06 Home 21 32 234 1 0
5 L, 20-26 11/5/06 Away 12 26 194 1 2
4 W, 42-29 11/27/05 Home 22 30 302 3 1
3 W, 21-9 11/6/05 Away 19 26 248 2 0
2 W, 27-26 12/5/04 Away 29 36 382 3 1
1 W, 9-23 9/26/04 Home 25 52 316 0 3
        180 292 2,235 12 8

So how do you guys feel about the Bengals heading into the game against Baltimore? Good? Terrified? Confident? Freaking out?

33 comments  |  1 recs |

Carson Palmer finished with a 149.3 passer rating against the Green Bay Packers

If you include the one-yard touchdown on a quarterback sneak, the God of Golden Arms (Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer) was responsible for three touchdowns on third down. In fact, looking through the game logs and his performance on third downs, he was just that. Golden. Of his nine pass attempts, Palmer completed eight for 93 yards passing, two touchdowns and no picks.

That's a third-down quarterback rating of 149.3 against the Packers.

For those of you that understand football, you know that converting third downs is critical. For those of you that don't know, or are for some reason just hanging out totally unaware that you spell it "Cincinnatti" (I know who you are), when you convert third downs, you sustain drives. When you sustain drives, you move the football into scoring position; or at the very least, win field position. You limit the opposition's chances to score because they're on the sidelines; the NFL's version of keep-away. In 2005 -- you know, that year -- the Bengals converted 43% of their third downs, which ranked third in the NFL. With the league's worst offense last year, the Bengals generated a 35% success rate on third downs -- 27th in the league. Last year's Super Bowl champion, the Pittsburgh Steelers, allowed a 31% success rate on third downs. Third down success rates aren't always generated on one play; rather the preceding first and second downs. Generally speaking, short third down conversions have a far better success rate than third and long. If you don't know what I'm saying by now, then take my word for it. Third downs are mega-important.

The God of Golden Arms didn't care where he was. He just unleashed it. On third-and-three, he connected with Laveranues Coles for four yards. On third-and-five, he threw a five-yard touchdown pass to Chris Henry. On third-and-six, he completed an eight-yard pass to Andre Caldwell. On third-and-12, he hit Chad Ochocinco for 23 yards. On third-and-11, he buzzed a low pass to Chad for a 13-yard touchdown. Of the nine passing attempts on Sunday, five were completed for conversions, one was the Coats fumble which went for 23 yards and the 11-yard pass to Brian Leonard was one-yard short.

So far on the season, Palmer has completed 13 of 21 passes for 160 yards, two touchdowns and one interception for a passer rating of 97.3.

12 comments  |  0 recs |

Kevin Huber is on pace to shatter the NFL single-season record for punts inside-the-20

Lost in all the hubbub after beating the Green Bay Packers in a genocidal effort to cause all Bengals fans to have a collective heart attack, Bengals punter Kevin Huber isn't just fulfilling all of the accolades he earned in college. He's actually making a difference. A fifth round draft pick, Huber was selected higher than Bernard Scott and Morgan Trent, two guys that have a decent future in the NFL as, at least, backup role players. Huber, isn't a backup role player. He's helping the Bengals dictate games. Such as his 61-yard punt against the Packers that denied Green Bay field position and eventually set up Quan Cosby's 60-yard return; thanks to a tough defense.

More specifically, Huber has one hell of an ability to punt the football inside the 20-yard line.

Continue reading this post »

16 comments  |  0 recs |

Around the NFL: Possible NFL milestones in 2009

New Minnesota Vikings quarterback Brett Favre looks on during NFL football training camp, Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2009 in Eden Prairie, Minn. (AP Photo/Hannah Foslien)

More photos » by Hannah Foslien - AP

3 months ago: New Minnesota Vikings quarterback Brett Favre looks on during NFL football training camp, Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2009 in Eden Prairie, Minn. (AP Photo/Hannah Foslien)

One of the neat things we witness each year is that in the NFL, star players, who dominated the league, eventually pass the torch to the younger generation of players, creating dynasties, records, consecutive streaks, etc... However, we're also witnessing a period in which older players also holding onto their torch just a while longer; most of whom are still in great playing shape. When that happens, records begin to be threatened, milestones achieved. This year, there's several. The following is a list of milestones that can be reached this year in the NFL.

  • Vikings quarterback Brett Favre will start his 270th consecutive game at Cleveland Browns Stadium on Kickoff Weekend. It's believed that he'll tie the all-time record of 270 consecutive games started, set by former Browns and Vikings defensive end, Jim Marshall. However, records of when players started didn't become an official stat until 1961. Browns records indicate that in the final 11 games of 1960, Marshall did not start (however he did play in 12 games).
  • Terrell Owens needs 11 touchdowns receiving and Randy Moss needs 15 touchdowns receiving to join Jerry Rice as the only players with 150 touchdowns or more receiving.
  • If Tony Gonzalez records 84 receptions, he'll be the first Tight End in NFL history with 1,000 receptions.
  • The Green Bay Packers only need seven wins this year to become only the second team with 650 regular-season wins. The other team is the Chicago Bears. The Bengals are still 378 regular-wins away from that milestone.
  • With another 4,000-yard passing season, Peyton Manning will be the first NFL quarterback to record ten 4,000-yard passing seasons. With 10 touchdown passes, he'll also move into third place all-time.
  • If LaDainian Tomlinson records 10 touchdowns, he will extend his NFL-record of consecutive 10-touchdown seasons to start a career to nine.

6 comments  |  0 recs |

The Cincinnati Bengals are 16-31 against teams with a .500 record or better; a look at the Bengals record since 2003

I brought the topic up on Tuesday, during a statistical revelation of sorts, wondering about the Bengals' record against their competition. I wanted to know how the Bengals did against teams, based on their opponent's record when they met. In other words, how did the Bengals do against teams they were expected to beat. How did they do against better competition; all of which is determined by the record. For example:

Note the record of the opposing team at the time the Bengals met them. Further to the right, I have the Bengals record and the result of the game. This is what I'm figuring out today. It's an inexact science. Things like a team playing in a terrible division, or sporting an incredibly weak schedule, isn't taken into account.

I also decided to chart only the Marvin Lewis era; makes the most sense to me. I'm not doing this to find an antagonist. Often I use this timeline because I believe that the Lewis era should have its own place, separated from the decade before he was hired. You could have an overlord timeline, then separate it into two overlord sub-timelines; the Lewis era being one of them. Statistically speaking, during Mike Brown's tenure as owner, the Bengals never had a stretch of .500 football or better for four consecutive seasons until Lewis arrived. As dreary as it might sound right now, comparatively speaking, the Bengals record since Lewis arrived is much better. That's just my opinion though. If anyone wants to continues what I started, they're more than welcome.

What I did learn (well, maybe confirmed) is that the Bengals performed poorly against better competition -- which includes the 2005 season. The Bengals were 2-4 against teams with a .500 record or better in 2005. I also wanted to point out that I am separating the difference between the record when teams met, and the record at the end of the year. In fact, I'm completely ditching records at the end of the year. In my opinion, the two are vastly different. Some teams go through trends and streaks. A record at the end of the year, while obviously the most important stat in football, encompasses an entire season whereas the record at the time the Bengals met their opponents, better illustrates, albeit limitedly, how the team is playing at the time. Furthermore, you know it, I know it, teams rarely carry the same characteristics and momentum through 17 weeks in an NFL season. Some start strong, others finish strong.

Since 2003, the Bengals are 16-31 (.340) against teams with a winning percentage of .500 or better when both teams meet; not the opponent's record at the end of the season. For example, though the Bills were 2-2 in 2003 (which qualifies as .500 or better in this discussion) when the Bengals played them, Buffalo finished the season 6-10. If you're willing enough to subtract the 1-9 season against .500 or better teams in 2008, the Bengals are 15-22. A year-by-year breakdown of the team's record against .500 or better teams (when the Bengals met them) since 2003.

Season Record
2003 3-4
2004 3-4
2005 2-4
2006 4-6
2007 3-4
2008 1-9
  16-31

In the words of Mr. Obvious, the Bengals haven't played well against teams that field a winning record. In fact, the Bengals typically struggle against good teams. In the 37 games against playoff teams they've played since 2003, the Bengals have a .297 winning percentage (11-26).

There was another curiosity which needs be broken down into two parts. How did Cincinnati perform against teams with a better record, and how did they perform against teams with a worse record? This compares to the Bengals record when the two teams meet. In the case of teams with a worse record than Cincinnati, it shows what the Bengals do in games that "they should win". In the case of teams with a better record than Cincinnati, it shows how the Bengals stack up against teams that should beat them -- in other words, do the Bengals perform better against better competition?

No.

Much like their performances against teams with a .500 record or better, the Bengals are 17-31-1 (.357) against teams that have a better record than the Bengals at the time the two teams meet. You have to go all the way back to Marvin Lewis' rookie season in which the Bengals had a winning percentage against teams with a better record. Notably, they beat 5-1 Seattle and 9-0 Kansas City. Again, if you're willing to call 2008 an aberration year and totally remove it from the discussion (and why not? In 14 games the Bengals had a worse record), the Bengals are 14-20 (.412).

Season Record
2003 4-3
2004 4-5
2005 0-1
2006 3-4
2007 3-7
2008 3-11-1
  17-31-1

One of the more telling signs of a good team, other than beating the hell out of the competition, is how teams do against opponents that they should beat. Record-wise, how do the Bengals stack up against teams with an inferior record? In truth, that's the majority of their wins. In only one season since 2003 do the Bengals have a losing record against teams with a worse record than Cincinnati -- ironically, it's the same season in which the Bengals sported a winning record against teams with a .500 or better record. That's one of those statistical occurrences in which stats can mind-hump you into a migraine.

Season Record
2003 4-5
2004 4-3
2005 11-4
2006 5-4
2007 4-2
2008 1-0
  29-18

In quick statistical summary.

Record against teams with a .500 record or better: 16-31 (.340)
Record against teams with a better record than the Bengals: 17-31-1 (.357)
Record against teams with a worse record than the Bengals: 29-18 (.617)

I know the reaction. I wasn't all that surprised either. The Bengals beat teams that they should beat, comparatively speaking of corresponding records. Against winning teams and teams that should beat the Bengals, mostly do beat the Bengals.

6 comments  |  0 recs |

Comparing Chad Johnson to potential Hall of Fame arguments

James Walker compares Hines Ward to the best receivers that are still active in potential hall of fame discussions. Of his chart, he compares Ward to Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss and Torry Holt. So I wondered where Chad Johnson stacked amongst these notable nominations for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Player Catches Yards TDs Pro Bowls SB Wins
Marvin Harrison 1,102 14,580 128 8 1
Terrell Owens 951 14,122 139 6 0
Randy Moss 843 13,201 135 6 0
Torry Holt 869 12,660 74 7 1
Hines Ward 800 9,780 72 4 1
Chad Johnson 612 8,905 53 5 0

The noticeable issue here is that the "elite" guys, the receivers likely bound for Hall of Fame arguments, have played several seasons more than Johnson. So how does Johnson compare when we break down the numbers by the amount of seasons they've played?

Player Seasons Catches Yards TDs
Marvin Harrison 13 84.8 1,121.5 9.8
Terrell Owens 13 73.2 1,086.3 10.7
Randy Moss 11 76.6 1,200.1 12.3
Torry Holt 10 86.9 1,266 7.4
Hines Ward 11 72.7 889.1 6.5
Chad Johnson 8 76.5 1,113.1 6.6

Johnson's touchdown production barely beats out Ward's, and Owens and Moss each have double-digit touchdown averages. In fact, Johnson's averages kind of took me by surprise; I really expected more production. In truth, 2008 really hurt his averages, but so have injured or down seasons by the others.

1 comment  |  0 recs |

Carson Palmer gives the Bengals a better chance to win, but by how much?

One of the storylines this off-season, for those that splash in gallons of Kool-aid about optimistic forecasts, is the return of Carson Palmer. After spending much of 2008 injured with a bum elbow, a second-stage "return" is commencing that will be similar to his pre-2006 comeback, with the obvious difference between a team that finished 2005 in the playoffs, and a team that finished 2008 as a reminder of who owns this team. Hype will likely be downgraded considering the differences with the severity of his injuries, however, it matters not, for the question is with or without Carson Palmer.

We like to believe that Palmer is a difference maker. We like to believe that he's a great quarterback, or one in training to achieve greatness. If you take the simplicity of a quarterback's over winning record as your benchmark for a calling a quarterback great, then one has to argue Palmer's 32-33 career record doesn't describe greatness, or even the promise of it. Dynamically, the argument branches. Some claim the record, while others list achievements; of which Palmer is doing well; especially franchise records held by two quarterbacks with Hall of Fame arguments. It's just those stinking wins, or lack thereof, that's caused a directional argument, both with justified points; which are ultimately subjective.

Note that while we're not making that argument because he's not even close to being finished, but we wanted to breakdown two things. How Palmer's numbers look between wins and losses and how his numbers look against playoff teams. If you're chomping at the bit to claim that it's a team game and if the defense is terrible, or if the rushing offense is stalled, then quarterbacks are thrown into a unfair advantage because they can't do it all. While the point is understood, that's not how quarterbacks are realistically judged. Excuses tend to fade with time, while the rock solid numbers of wins lasts. If you want to dig into the Mike Brown is satan argument, by all means. We're avoiding such things for now, unless something badass happens, because we get tired of talking about the same thing over and over; but if someone else wants to, go for it.

Reading the disparities between wins and losses, Carson Palmer's career numbers rarely fluctuated, with the exception of a higher completion rate and over a half-touch average per game; some would call those critical numbers. His yards, interceptions and completions are eerily similar.

  Comp. Attempts Comp% Yards Tds INTs
Avg. during wins (32) 21.2 31.2 68% 241 1.9 1.0
Avg. during losses (33) 21.3 35.4 60% 240 1.3 1.1

Did you know that since 2004, the Bengals have played 30 games against playoff teams during Palmer's 65-game career? The Bengals are 11-19, with the last win on November 25, 2007, in a 35-6 win over the Tennessee Titans. We spent all of 2008 without beating a playoff team, while Palmer faced and lost to the Ravens and Giants. However, you'll note that Palmer has field days against non-playoff teams, which includes an increase of, well, just about everything including a .5 interception-average spike -- which means the Bengals is opening up against poor teams; where he's 21-14.

  Comp. Attempts Comp% Yards Tds INTs
Avg. against playoff teams 19.3 31.0 62% 226.6 1.4 0.9
Avg. against non-playoff teams 22.9 35.3 65% 252.3 1.9 1.4

Based on wins/losses since 2004, the Bengals are better with Palmer, by six hundreds of a percentage point. Before the season, Palmer was three games above .500; but at losses to the Ravens, Titans, Giants and Cowboys, he dropped to .492, which is similarly on par with Marvin Lewis' drop from a winning record (42-38, .525) to not winning record (46-49-1, .484) after 2008.

Bengals with Carson Palmer 32-33 (.492)
Bengals without Carson Palmer 6-8-1 (.433)

Granted, judging a quarterback after six seasons, and 65 career games is rather foolish. Just like judging any NFL draft, before the standard three seasons afterwards, there's no telling where the Bengals go from here with Palmer. We just know he makes us better than not being there.

0 comments  |  0 recs |


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