Should we lower our expectations of Carson Palmer?
I have simple classifications for quarterbacks. You have bad quarterbacks that spend most of their time shouting "knock it off". You have the average quarterback that's specifically told, "do not lose the game". You have the good quarterbacks that put up pretty numbers -- and a lot of game ending picks. You have the great quarterbacks that win games and perhaps, a Super Bowl. Then you have the legendary quarterback that does what very few people have ever done in recorded NFL history.
It's a simple classification system that doesn't include the headache of understanding metrics or the overwhelming homerism that puts a player far beyond the landscape that he deserves.
I wanted to examine Palmer's numbers compared to his contemporaries in the AFC North -- minus the Baltimore Ravens because of McNair's injuries.
| Rating | Yards | Pct. | TDs | INT | |
| B. Roethlisberger | 102.2 | 1,533 | 64.6% (124-192) | 15 | 6 |
| D. Anderson | 95.5 | 1,744 | 54.9% (119-209) | 17 | 8 |
| C. Palmer | 90.7 | 1,922 | 64.3% (164-255) | 14 | 9 |
Take away Palmer's Cleveland performance and his touchdown/interception ratio drops to eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. Just for comparisons sake, recently demoted Chad Pennington had nine touchdowns and seven picks. Just under half of his season-total touchdowns were scored in one game. A losing effort no less.
I'm not here to blame Palmer. Way off if that's your impression. I was one of the bandwagon members that quickly gave Palmer his "great" tag. His fourth season on the field, I've since degraded his tag to "good". Why? Well, he puts up pretty numbers. But he's not the quarterback that hog-ties his team around his back and leads them towards victory -- no matter the variables involved here.
If you're quick to find excuses, then that should automatically remove any chance towards the "great" tag. Right? Maybe not. For the sake of argument, without anything else other than the quarterback involved, has Carson Palmer lowered your expectation of him? Is the data still incomplete? Or do you think he's the reincarnation of Joe Montana?
Where does Carson Palmer fit? Is he good, great, legendary, bad or average? I'm very aware arguments like this avoid basic variables -- supporting staff, offensive system, injuries and suspensions. Since this season is going to drag out a little, I wanted to get a basic feeling of people's impressions of him at this point. A report card of sorts. Thoughts?
And don't worry. Just so you know, I'm not picking on Palmer here. If the season drags out like this, then we'll be examining the entire roster.
0 recs |
8
comments
Comments
It's funny, but...
Seriously, all season he's been an immobile statue who holds onto the ball too long -- in other words, Bledsoe. Now that's not necessarily a bad thing, Bledsoe had some good years, but he's definitely a step or three down from Troy Aikman, another popular Palmer comparison.
by BeerRun on Oct 29, 2007 8:42 PM EDT 0 recs
hard to say
by cokane on Oct 30, 2007 1:16 AM EDT 0 recs
Wait a second
The Bengals have played 5 defenses in the top third of the NFL in their 5 games (according to Football Outsiders). Only CLE and NYJ suck in that list of opponents.
The Bengals pass offense is 4th in the NFL (again, according to Football Outsiders). The Bengals are 20th in rush offense, 22nd in pass defense, 23rd in rush defense and 30th in special teams.
Picking on Palmer -- far and away the best thing the Bengals have going -- is just plain wrong. Palmer, Johnson, Housh and an above average pass blocking offensive line are the only things that give the Bengals any hope of winning from week to week.
Back to those rankings: man they do they depress me. I finally am of the opinion that Marvin isn't a genius after all. He probably needs to go (and soon), but it is going to take a few more disappointing seasons before it happens.
by gooden on Oct 30, 2007 1:22 AM EDT 0 recs
The System
Carson flourishes in the hurry up and it keeps an opponent's defense on the field - AND TIRED. Routes start opening up underneath since the tired CB's will be playing our stud wideouts with more cushion.
Beating the coverages underneath will then allow for a much better vertical game - ie. - one on one.
One other thing - Carson doesn't feed the ball to Reggie Kelly and/or Jeremy Johnson enough. They've got good hands too. They need to make the opponent's defense account for Reggie and Jeremy also. Most opponents can put it in the bank that the ball isn't going to Reggie or Jeremy on almost every down that they are in. That little nugget provides better blitzing packages or better coverages for a defense.
Is this Carson or is this a product of the offensive system? I'm more ready to say that it is more of the system than it is Carson at this point.
by bjs73 on Oct 30, 2007 8:03 AM EDT 0 recs
The Hurry Up
The hurry up/no huddle has gone away because the defense sucks. They need to keep the O on the field as much as possible.
"Picking on Palmer -- far and away the best thing the Bengals have going -- is just plain wrong."
I don't see kirk picking on Palmer here, just wondering whether he's a bit more average than we all thought or hoped. Sadly, I think that may be true. We'll see.
by BeerRun on Oct 30, 2007 9:22 AM EDT 0 recs
RE:
And like I said, since this appears to be a season that could drag a while, we'll examine others. I figured it was a good starting point to get the ol' noggin' rolling.
by Kirkendall on Oct 30, 2007 9:36 AM EDT 0 recs
Yes...
He is still a good QB, but he has been very one-dimensional: a classic drop-back passer with a great arm. Surround him with good protection and multiple weapons and you get the Palmer of 2005.
But he's not mobile, his decision-making is average and, most importantly, his play fake moves are terrible. He can't generate any misdirection.
So, when the protection and/or the weapons aren't all there -- as they haven't been for the last two seasons -- Palmer's plate is bare. He's not shown me that he's the kind of QB who can pick the team up and carry it on his shoulders.
Again, that doesn't make him a bad QB. Every quarterback's play is going to fall off to some extent if they lose key guys on the offense. But Palmer doesn't seem to have any tricks to pull out of his sleeve when that happens.
by BeerRun on Oct 30, 2007 12:23 PM EDT 0 recs
Palmer is suffering from the playcalling...
Hopefully Perry came make an impact this week. Maybe they'll remember that Watson can catch the ball.
by sledridge on Nov 2, 2007 11:08 PM EDT 0 recs








