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Updated projections and metrics

I wanted to take the time out to update stats, projections and metrics. Let's start with Carson Palmer.

You'll note that Palmer's touchdowns and completion rates are down -- as are his metrics -- although that's pretty consistent across the league. His yards are up as are his long passing plays. But these numbers are a far cry from earlier in the season when he was mediocre and average compared to the league.

Carson Palmer Yards Comp-Att. Touchdowns Interceptions 20+/40+ Yrd Plays
2006 Projection* 4,086 323-505 (64.0) 27 12 54/15
2005 Final 3,836 345-509 (67.8) 32 12 43/9
2004 Final 2,897 263-432 (60.9) 18 18 34/8

Metrics

Carson Palmer DPAR DVOA
2006 88.5 (3rd) 32.6% (3rd)
2005 108.3 (2nd) 34.5% (2nd)

Rudi Johnson has been the most disappointing of the triplets. While his touchdowns remain consistent, his yards, average yards per run and first downs are way down -- his attempts are within 20 of his past two seasons. His metrics are horrible compared to 2005. The disappointing part of this is that he came into the season healthy having lost weight in the off-season.

Rudi Johnson Yards Attempts Touchdowns Yrds/Rush First Downs
2006 Projection* 1,295 341 12 3.8 64
2005 Final 1,458 337 12 4.3 79
2004 Final 1,454 361 12 4.0 73

Metrics

Rudi Johnson DPAR DVOA
2006 16.5 (16th) 1.1% (26th)
2005 50.9 (3rd) 22.7% (3rd)

Chad Johnson, like Carson Palmer, had awful projections and metrics in the first half of the season. Since November 12th (San Diego), all his numbers sky-rocketed to fall in line with his 2005 numbers. In fact, his DVOA is ranked ten places better than his DVOA in 2005.

Chad Johnson Yards Receptions Touchdowns Yrds/Rec.
2006 Projection* 1,468 91 8 16.1
2005 Final 1,432 97 9 14.8
2004 Final 1,274 95 9 13.4

Metrics

Chad Johnson DPAR DVOA
2006 32.8 (2nd) 22.0% (2nd)
2005 36.8 (2nd) 19.3% (12th)

Having missed two games to start the season, T.J. Houshmandzadeh is crushing his 2005 numbers. He's one first down conversion short of breaking his personal high 52 last season. His notable metrics are in the top-five (like Chad Johnson).

T.J. Houshmandzadeh Yards Receptions Touchdowns Yrds/Rec.
2006 Projection* 1,078 88 9 12.2
2005 Final 956 78 7 12.3
2004 Final 978 73 4 13.4

Metrics

T.J. Houshmandzadeh DPAR DVOA
2006 29.1 (5th) 27.7% (4th)
2005 29.8 (9th) 24.9% (6th)

Here's more...

Reggie Kelly Yards Receptions Touchdowns Yrds/Rec.
2006 Projection* 259 21 1 12.6
2005 Final 85 15 1 6.0
2004 Final 90 15 0 5.7

Chris Henry Yards Receptions Touchdowns Yrds/Rec.
2006 Projection* 513 33 8 15.6
2005 Final 422 31 6 13.6

More Metrics

Bengals offense DVOA
2006 20.5% (3rd)
2005 19.6% (11th)

Bengals defense DVOA
2006 6.5% (25th)
2005 1.0% (20th)

Offensive Line Adjusted-Line Yards
2006 4.39 (11th)
2005 4.51 (4th)

* Multiplied current numbers by 1.143

DPAR - Each play is compared to a number roughly 13.3% below the average success value of similar plays.  That gives us value over a replacement level player, a better representation of a player's total contribution to his team on all his plays.
DVOA - DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
Adjusted-Line Yards - the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

  • Losses: 120% value
  • 0-4 Yards: 100% value
  • 5-10 Yards: 50% value
  • 11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, and opponent, and normalized so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry (in 2005, 4.07)

[Football Outsiders]