I wanted to take the time out to update stats, projections and metrics. Let's start with Carson Palmer.
You'll note that Palmer's touchdowns and completion rates are down -- as are his metrics -- although that's pretty consistent across the league. His yards are up as are his long passing plays. But these numbers are a far cry from earlier in the season when he was mediocre and average compared to the league.
|Carson Palmer||Yards||Comp-Att.||Touchdowns||Interceptions||20+/40+ Yrd Plays|
|2006 Projection*||4,086||323-505 (64.0)||27||12||54/15|
|2005 Final||3,836||345-509 (67.8)||32||12||43/9|
|2004 Final||2,897||263-432 (60.9)||18||18||34/8|
|2006||88.5 (3rd)||32.6% (3rd)|
|2005||108.3 (2nd)||34.5% (2nd)|
Rudi Johnson has been the most disappointing of the triplets. While his touchdowns remain consistent, his yards, average yards per run and first downs are way down -- his attempts are within 20 of his past two seasons. His metrics are horrible compared to 2005. The disappointing part of this is that he came into the season healthy having lost weight in the off-season.
|Rudi Johnson||Yards||Attempts||Touchdowns||Yrds/Rush||First Downs|
|2006||16.5 (16th)||1.1% (26th)|
|2005||50.9 (3rd)||22.7% (3rd)|
Chad Johnson, like Carson Palmer, had awful projections and metrics in the first half of the season. Since November 12th (San Diego), all his numbers sky-rocketed to fall in line with his 2005 numbers. In fact, his DVOA is ranked ten places better than his DVOA in 2005.
|2006||32.8 (2nd)||22.0% (2nd)|
|2005||36.8 (2nd)||19.3% (12th)|
Having missed two games to start the season, T.J. Houshmandzadeh is crushing his 2005 numbers. He's one first down conversion short of breaking his personal high 52 last season. His notable metrics are in the top-five (like Chad Johnson).
|2006||29.1 (5th)||27.7% (4th)|
|2005||29.8 (9th)||24.9% (6th)|
|Offensive Line||Adjusted-Line Yards|
* Multiplied current numbers by 1.143
DPAR - Each play is compared to a number roughly 13.3% below the average success value of similar plays. That gives us value over a replacement level player, a better representation of a player's total contribution to his team on all his plays.
DVOA - DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
Adjusted-Line Yards - the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:
- Losses: 120% value
- 0-4 Yards: 100% value
- 5-10 Yards: 50% value
- 11+ Yards: 0% value
These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, and opponent, and normalized so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry (in 2005, 4.07)