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Joyner's "at-fault" interceptions

The very detailed K.C. Joyner breaks down the NFL's best and worst quarterbacks regarding "at-fault" interceptions. He equates "non-at-fault" interceptions as:

  1. Passes tipped by a defender, either at the line of scrimmage or downfield.
  2. Passes dropped by a receiver, then intercepted.
  3. Hail Mary passes.
  4. Inaccurate passes that happen because the quarterback gets hit while throwing the ball.

I think this is interesting because there's an increasing emphasis of blanket fantasy football stats becoming way to common with how we grade players. Yards, in reality, are generalist numbers -- they have no substance. A three yard run around the 50-yard line on first down is nothing compared to a three yard touchdown run or first down. There's little comparison between players. The best way to gauge a player's worth or value is how they perform, in similar situations, compared to everyone at their position.

Joyner explains a guy like Drew Brees finished 2005 with 15 touchdowns -- eight of which were "not-at-fault". Brees has the seventh best DPAR (73.3) and eight best DVOA (19.8%). In other words, Brees was comparatively better than most quarterbacks in similar situations. On the other hand, Eli Manning had 9 "at-fault" interceptions (inaccurate pass interceptions and bad decision percentages). Manning's DPAR (36.9) was 18th among NFL quarterbacks. His DVOR (1.8%) was horrible; meaning he was average compared to NFL quarterbacks in similar situations.

Carson Palmer makes a minor appearance throwing 10 "at-fault" interceptions; meaning 10 of his 12 interceptions were his fault. All things considered, that's pretty good.

DPAR represents the number of points scored in which the QB passed or carried the ball in comparison to a replacement-level QB in the same situations. For example, if you remove all the plays Carson Palmer played in, how would Palmer rate over that replacement? Therefore, Palmer is responsible for 108.3 points more than the average replacement-player.

DVOA simply distributes credit to a player based on situations. For example, a running back that gains 3 yards on first down is not successful. However, if that same running back gains three yards on third-and-two, obviously, that's a more valuable gain. DVOA does it's best to credit success, not based on actual yardage, rather situations.

THE PACKERS ARE PREPARING for a rowdy Paul Brown Stadium.

GREEN BAY, Wis. Packers coach Mike McCarthy gave his players a sample of what they can expect when they play the Bengals in Cincinnati in a preseason game Monday night. The coach had crowd noise piped into the speakers during team segments of today's practice.

Rookie left guard Jason Spitz was done in by a false-start penalty with the first-string offense.