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We're already talking mock drafts?

Antsy football writers are already mocking the 2007 NFL draft. WHAT?! At a time when eight NFL teams are still playing and college juniors contemplating returning or entering the NFL draft, does it make sense to mock the draft... now? Mock drafts, right now, makes as much sense as skinny dipping without women. Teams are still evaluating general managers and head coaches. Front offices will be evaluating free agents. And not only do mock drafts get the Bengals pick wrong, but they're not even close to the position that's actually drafted. The only other profession where you can predict something, get it totally wrong and get paid, is Meteorology. Let's add that the public gets limited information from interviews and only have 40 times, shuttle times, vertical leaps and bench press reps as arbitrary items that will either propel or degrade a prospect. Does the Wonderlic score really matter? Vince says, no (after explaining to him what Wonderlic is).

I don't hate mock drafts; but I don't care for them in January.

The one thing you can determine from a large sample of mock drafts is, roughly, a region where a player will fall. For example, Todd McShay says the Bengals will pick up Defensive Tackle, Tank Tyler from North Carolina State. No, I don't think the Bengals will pick him up -- someone predicted it. That's generally the rule of prediction based professions. Cincinnati, on Monday Night, was supposed to get an inch of snow -- it barely rained much less snowed.

My thought about the draft is that I think the Bengals, depending on Justin Smith, will go defensive line. So I look at the Bengals 18th slot. If Justin Smith stays, then I expect the Bengals to think middle linebacker (also, depending on Odell Thurman) Then I take the ten spots above and below that pick to get an idea where a player could fall. Now, this widens the defensive linemen that McShay believes will go in the middle.

  • Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
  • Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
  • Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
  • Quentin Moses, DE/OLB, Georgia
  • Tank Tyler, DT, N.C. State
  • Jarvis Moss, DE/OLB, Florida

There, rather than a single person to look up, you have six potentials.

Peter Schrager, interestingly enough, also said the Bengals will draft Tank Tyler. Here's Schrager's defensive linemen falling from 8th to 28th.

  • Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
  • Tank Tyler, DT, N.C. State
  • Quinn Pitcock, DT, tOSU

Specifically, drafting for the Bengals will be a complicated prediction. There's too many variables to consider -- Justin Smith and Robert Geathers will be free agents. Odell Thurman and David Pollack are variables that could reach either side of the spectrum regarding the question if they'll be back next season or not.

Like I said, I'm not against Mock Drafts -- just having them in January is a tad bit ridiculous. Especially in Cincinnati.