You can tell with numbers, results and attitude; the Bengals offense went backwards.
|Yrds. Per Play||5.5||5.6||-0.1|
|Total First Downs||313||342||29|
|Conv. 3rd Downs||36%||43%||7%|
Carson Palmer threw for 4,035 yards (199 yard increase from 2005 that includes the eight-pass attempt in the irrelevant Kansas City game).
|20+ Yard Plays||52||43||+9|
|40+ Yard Plays||15||9||+16|
Even Palmer's metrics are down.
* DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement, is a number that "represents the total number of points scored due to plays where this QB passed or carried the ball, compared to a replacement-level QB in the same game situations."
** DPAR is the same, but isn't adjusted based on opponent.
*** DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, is a number that "represents value, per play, over an average QB in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance."
**** VOA is the same, but isn't adjusted based on opponent.
There was a question in a previous post, mostly prompted by an article by Geoff Hobson, questioning the future of Rudi Johnson. If you look at his numbers after his career-year in 2005, you'll note many drop offs. I contribute Johnson's struggles to offensive line changes and more passing situations than 2005 (i.e. not so many quick leads or blowouts). Here's the numbers:
|20+ Yrd Runs||5||5||0|
Johnson's horrible season is really explained if you look at his metrics. His value is way down compared to 2005 and in most cases, played on par with those in the middle of the pack.
|Succ. Rate +||44%||52%|
DPAR is total value. DVOA is value per play.
+ Success Rate "represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays."
Chad Johnson had a fine season -- CincyJungle's player of the year. But like many of his team-mates, his numbers are way down. A few games in the middle of season salvaged what appeared to be one of his worst.
|20+ Yrd Plays||16||16||0|
|40+ Yrd Plays||8||7||+1|
Chad's metrics are the least declined of the Bengals triplets.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh was the most improved. All of his numbers, compared to 2005, are way up. Include that Houshmandzadeh suffered a bum heel that kept him out against the Chiefs and Browns to start the season.
|20+ Yrd. Plays||19||14||+5|
|40+ Yrd. Plays||1||1||0|
Housh's metrics, especially the Points Above Replacement, are very similar to Chad. It shows the balance this team has in the passing game regarding the value of both wide receivers.
Overall, the Bengals offense played a disappointing, yet adverse-filled, season. Cincinnati had the fourth best DVOA (14.6%), the third best Weighted Offense (18.8%) and the second best pass offense (28.9%). The rush (-2.4%) finished a disappointing 16th. But let's compare this to last year's team.
Weighted Offense: "is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season."