We've been fairly sure that Chad Ochocinco, who is the Bengals' all-time leading receiver, won't be back with the Bengals in 2011. When the Bengals selected Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft, it made most of us move from "he probably won't be back" to "it's really almost completely positive that he won't be back."
But, if there's any shred of doubt in your mind that makes you believe that the Bengals will hold on to Chad for one more year, I'm going to convince you with two reasons.
Those reasons are Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson.
First, there's the price of their contracts.
The Bengals owe both Caldwell and Simpson $555,000 for the 2011 season. They would owe Chad $6 million if he stays and about half that if he leaves. If he leaves, they could use that extra couple million dollars to attempt to re-sign Cedric Benson and/or Johnathan Joseph. But back to Caldwell and Simpson.
In 2011, Simpson hauled in 20 receptions for 277 yards for three touchdowns in the only three games he started. But the more impressive number was 13.9. Simpson's 20 receptions averaged 13.9 yards per catch.
In 2011, Caldwell had 25 catches for 345 yards and zero touchdowns in the five games he started, but his more impressive number was 13.8 yards per catch.
Ochocinco started 12 games, caught 67 passes for 831 yards and four touchdowns but was outdone by Simpson and Caldwell in the YPC department having only a 12.4 yard average. In fact, Ochocinco has only outdone Caldwell and Simpson's YPC mark once in the last three years (2009, when he averaged 14.5). In 2008, his yards per catch averaged dipped all the way down to 10.4 yards.
With a new quarterback, offensive coordinator and a slew of new talent at the receiver positions, including Green, Simpson, Caldwell, Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham, there really isn't room anymore for Ochocinco. While the NFL has surprised me on many occasions and I've learned to stay away from definitive statements, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Chad Ochocinco will be playing for another team in 2011.
I hope I don't eat my words.