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Well.
The playoff picture certainly didn't change much. Sure the Bengals didn't lose ground with a gritty and gusty 20-13 win over the Chargers in San Diego. But the Baltimore Ravens continue to look like a bloated and (dare I say overrated) nine-win team while the Andrew Luck continues impressing upon the league that the Indianapolis Colts are back.
The Cincinnati Bengals have a strong handle on the No. 7 seed, distancing themselves with a two-game advantage over teams like the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Buffalo Bills. The Pittsburgh Steelers hold onto the Sixth Seed due to the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week Seven and the Colts eight wins have them securing the Fifth Seed.
Ultimately it appears that the Bengals and Steelers are headed for a showdown in Week 16. Obviously Cincinnati controls their own Wild Card destiny if they win their final four games on their schedule, which includes a win over the Steelers and an overall better record (even if Pittsburgh wins their other three games).
Yet the Bengals have to win that game, or else they're relying on other teams to drop Pittsburgh twice for a .500 record during their final four games. And even then it's murky. Now. A bunch of scenarios.
- If the Bengals win out, they win a Wild Card berth.
- If the Steelers win out, they win a Wild Card berth.
Those are the two obvious.
BEAT THE STEELERS, LOSE TO THE RAVENS
Now if the Bengals beat the Cowboys, Eagles, Steelers and lose the Ravens while the Steelers beat the Chargers, Cowboys and Browns, Pittsburgh will claim the wild card based on the winning percentage within the division (if the tiebreaker is determined between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh... teams in different divisions require a slightly different tiebreaker process).
WEEK 14 | WEEK 15 | WEEK 16 | WEEK 17 | WHO WINS | |
Bengals | Beat Dallas | Beat Eagles | Beat Steelers | Lose to Ravens | |
Steelers | Beat Chargers | Beat Dallas | Lose to Bengals | Beat Browns | Steelers Clinch |
BEAT THE STEELERS AND RAVENS
If the Bengals lose to the Cowboys or the Eagles, but win the remaining games, they'll claim the Wild Card due to a better winning percentage in the conference.
WEEK 14 | WEEK 15 | WEEK 16 | WEEK 17 | WHO WINS | |
Bengals | Win/Lose Cowboys | Win/Lose Eagles | Beat Steelers | Beat Ravens | Bengals clinch |
Steelers | Beat Chargers | Beat Dallas | Lose to Bengals | Beat Browns |
Note how much easier things become with wins against the Ravens and Steelers. They have to win three out of four no matter the scenario (because it introduces more teams, or distances from the Steelers) and one of those wins must be against the Steelers.
LOSE TO THE STEELERS
This is where things are extremely complicated. Even if the Bengals beat the Ravens, Eagles and Cowboys, their loss to the Steelers requires multiple Pittsburgh losses to clinch. The only tiebreaker relevant at this point is head-to-head and having been swept by the Steelers, the Bengals require Pittsburgh to go .500 if the Bengals win three of their final four. Whatever the records, it has to be better than Pittsburgh's overall record. Pick your two games below.
WEEK 14 | WEEK 15 | WEEK 16 | WEEK 17 | WHO WINS | |
Bengals | Beat Cowboys | Beat Eagles | Lose to Steelers | Beat Ravens | Bengals clinch |
Steelers | Win/Lose Chargers | Win/Lose Dallas | Beat Bengals | Win/Lose Browns |
RECORD AGAINST COMMON OPPONENTS
OPPONENT | Bengals | Steelers |
RAVENS | 0-1 (Week 17) | 1-1 |
BROWNS | 1-1 | 0-1 (Week 17) |
REDSKINS | 1-0 | 1-0 |
GIANTS | 1-0 | 1-0 |
CHIEFS | 1-0 | 1-0 |
RAIDERS | 1-0 | 0-1 |
BRONCOS | 0-1 | 0-1 |
CHARGERS | 1-0 | Week 14 |
COWBOYS | Week 14 | Week 15 |
EAGLES | Week 15 | 1-0 |
6-3 | 5-4 |