Breaking Down Jay Gruden Head Coaching Probabilities

Due to our planned 24-hour reprieve from Jay Gruden updates and news, we started feeling anxious. Will people forget about it? What if we forget about it? We felt compelled. But with the head coaching tour announced and dates made public, we wanted o go through the teams to foresee the likelihood of where Gruden ends up -- if anywhere.

We'll start by saying that it probably won't be the Arizona Cardinals.

Ian Rapoport with the NFL Network told Rich Eisen on Sunday that the Arizona Cardinals are putting everything into Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. Rapoport holds a strong belief that if McCoy accepts, he'll immediately become Arizona's next head coach. And if not the backup plan is defensive coordinator Ray Horton. We imagine that if neither candidate works, Gruden is back in play. For now let's cross that off the list with a well-sharpened No. 2 pencil.

We're not sure about the Philadelphia Eagles either at this point.

It's entirely possible that the Eagles could announce that Gruden is their next head coach by the end of the day. We're not insiders, nor students of Nostradamus. But we're in the doubt it phase right now. The Eagles have courted four high profile college coaches, none signed. Though in fairness we doubt the interest was even genuine. They shifted their attention to Brian Billick, who is reportedly their leading candidate. But as Jason La Canfora writes, general manager Howie Roseman is so intrusive, that candidates are being warned about the job.

I wish I had a dollar for every time someone told me one esteemed coach or another advised one of the Eagles' top candidates not to take the job precisely because of Roseman's presence there. Roseman isn't the general manager they should tie their wagon to. It's clear Chip Kelly wasn't leaving Oregon for anywhere unless he had a large measure of control over the organization, and owner Jeffrey Lurie has already entrusted that to Roseman. There has been trepidation by some candidates to go all-in given the questions about this existing power structure.

The rumblings about Roseman lacking nuance and foresight, about him turning people off with how drunk with power he's become, only grow louder as his coaching search grows stranger.

Great. Gruden is interviewing with the Eagles on Monday and if Jon has any influence on Jay's decision, or at least in an advisory role, he may redirect his younger brother away from such an atmosphere.

That leaves two possibilities at this point. The San Diego Chargers, who interviewed Gruden on Sunday, and the Jacksonville Jaguars with a scheduled meet-and-greet on Tuesday.

According to one report written by Dam Pompei with the National Football Post, San Diego's newest general manager Tom Telesco holds Gruden in high regard.

Jay Gruden could emerge for the Chargers head coaching job. Why is that? New general manager Tom Telesco is said to hold Gruden in high regard. Telesco got to know about Gruden last year when Gruden was a candidate for the Colts head coaching job. The Colts, remember, offered Gruden the job that went to Chuck Pagano, and Gruden said no thanks.

McCoy is interviewing there on Monday with Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator on Wednesday.

Then there's Jacksonville where names like Gruden, McCoy and St. Louis Rams offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer are rumored.

When asked weeks ago what city Gruden would coach at next year, we said Cincinnati. Admittedly our conviction is lesser today, but we'd classify it as being our favorite.