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Bengals have 5.9 percent change to win the Super Bowl

Football Outsiders updated their playoff odds chart, giving the Bengals the fifth-best shot at winning the Super Bowl.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

It's all about winning the big game.

Earn a postseason berth, great. Now the table is set to actually accomplish something. Win a playoff game and do something that hasn't been done since 1990. Progress is now being made. Earn a berth to the Super Bowl, people take notice. Win it all and everyone's little joke that's been established since 2006, is gone.

According to Football Outsiders, who applies the weighted DVOA ratings, home-field advantage and plays out the game 50,000 times, the Bengals have a 13.7 percent chance of winning the AFC Championship game and advancing to the Super Bowl and a 5.9 percent chance of winning it.

As for the final wild card spot, the Miami Dolphins have a 58.7 percent chance of clinch the postseason berth this weekend, with the Baltimore Ravens (18.9 percent), San Diego Chargers (13.3 percent) and Pittsburgh Steelers (9.1 percent) in the rear.

The top-three teams that Football Outsiders gives for the great odds for winning the Super Bowl? The Seattle Seahawks (24.3 percent), the Denver Broncos (20.3 percent) and Carolina Panthers (15.2 percent).