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Mocking the mock drafts

You love reading the mock drafts and sometimes we take too much stock in what we see. Here is why that is not wise.


In fantasy football this year I had probably the greatest team assembled for some time. It is a keeper league and through the trades and maneuvers I managed to come up with a line up of:

  • Peyton Manning Den - QB
  • Jamaal Charles KC - RB
  • Marshawn Lynch Sea - RB
  • Knowshon Moreno Den - RB
  • Calvin Johnson Det - WR
  • DeSean Jackson Phi - WR

I lost in the Super Bowl to a team with Jay Cutler, Ryan Matthews, Giovani Bernard and the St. Louis defense as starters. Face it, Fantasy football is a crap shoot. You can do all the analysis you want but the game relies on the players on the field, and no one can predict that.

Much like no one can predict how the NFL draft is going to shake out. has an excellent article about how wrong all of these experts are on their mock drafts. Take the top 5 for example:

Expert Outlet Bengals Pick Correct Picks
Mel Kiper ESPN Kenny Vaccaro 0
Todd McShay ESPN Eddie Lacy 2
Pete Prisco CBS Kenny Vaccaro 1
Peter Schrager FOX Alex Okafor 0
Don Banks Sports Illustrated Sam Montgomery 1

In their mocks for last season, not only did they miss wildly for the Bengals, they only got a grand total of 5 picks correct. That is 5 correct out of 160.

Mel Kiper, who many consider the draft expert, had a guy by the name of Damontre Moore as the number 2 over all pick. Moore did not come off the board until the 81st pick. Worse than that was Peter Schrager, who had QB Tyler Wilson at 6th over all to the Browns. Wilson ended up going in the 4th round to the Raiders and didn't make it through camp.

Sometime this week there will be another "Mock Draft" link and you will see it and have to click it. Mock Drafts are one of the most popular subjects leading up to the actual draft and they are insanely inaccurate. That being said, you will probably find yourself disagreeing with someone online or in person many times over the choice. Deep down just know that you are both probably wrong.