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Could Bengals actually lose AFC North plus other odds for final 4 weeks

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How likely is it that the Bengals could lose the AFC North? What do the Bengals Super Bowl odds look like now?

If the Bengals were to lose at home to the Steelers on Sunday, is there any chance they wouldn't actually win the AFC North by season's end?

The Steelers chances of winning out are as follows...

Opponent @Cin Den @Bal @Cle % chance of winning all four games
% chance of winning 32 47 55 76 6.29%

According to fivethirtyeight.com, the Steelers have about a 6% chance to win out this year with three of their final four games on the road. In addition to the Steelers winning out, the only way the Bengals could lose the division is if they lose out. Here is how likely that is to happen...


Bengals Remaining Schedule
Opponent Pitt @SF @Den Bal % change of losing all four games
% chance of losing 32 31 62 21 1.29%

If the Bengals were to lose out on the AFC North title and the Steelers were to win the AFC North crown, both of these independent scenarios would have to be true, so the Bengals have about a 1 in 2,500 chance in losing the division. The first game is only factored in once if you are doing the math and wondering why it doesn't match up, thank you readers I messed that up at first.

To put that in perspective you are more likely to be born with an extra finger than the Bengals are to lose the division, and you are two times more likely to date millionaire than they are to lose the division. Even though a win in this game will be great for the Bengals' national perception, and a shot at the number one overall seed, rest assured the division is all but signed, sealed and delivered... unless a millionaire knocks on your door today.

As for Super Bowl 50, there has been a shake up in those odds too, with the Panthers now in the top spot with about 4-1 odds to win the Lombardi Trophy. With all the injuries that the Patriots have sustained and the struggles their offense saw because of it, they saw a drop in their odds to about 4.5-1.

The Panthers have continued to look strong and show that they can win in many ways, so the top odds are warranted for them. Couple their defense with how well Cam Newton is playing and you almost forget they don't have any historically productive receivers. The Bengals have also gained from the Patriots' losses and are now seeing their first single digit odds to win the Super Bowl (9-1) that I can ever remember. They showed a lot in the loss to the Cardinals on the road in primetime and the Patriots no longer look unbeatable, even in Foxboro. If the Bengals win on Sunday and the Patriots and Broncos lose, which is possible, they would likely jump into the top spot in the AFC because they would have the driver's seat for home field throughout the playoffs.

Lets look at a few amusing prop bets for the team we like to call the "Mistake by the Lake", the Cleveland Browns. There are currently two prop bets on our good buddy Johnny Manziel, the first is: Will he start each of the last four games.

The reason this one is funny is because he has been said to be given the starting job yet the bet is (-200) that he won't start all four games. That means, Vegas thinks it is more likely he doesn't actually start all of the last four games of the season. Now, he could get injured, so that is a factor, but maybe Vegas knows he has a reservation at the MGM Grand in a week for some more JFF fun times?

The other Manziel prop has to do with his location and job status in 2016. Will he be with the Browns, will they trade him, draft his replacement or another alternative? This one is pretty spread out, which shows how truly unstable the Browns' franchise is. If this were most teams, it would be pretty defined, even for teams that aren't sure about their quarterback situation. If a team had drafted a quarterback in the first round two years earlier, like Minnesota, that quarterback would be a heavy favorite to be the starter in Week 1 of the next season. This prop bet shows the battle the front office is going to have this off season with Manziel. Should they cut their losses and trade him for the little value he has, keep him as a backup and endure the distractions that accompany that, or draft his future replacement and let him be their new starter while learning from McCown? I wouldn't want to be that GM, but then again I had a third round grade on Manziel, so I wouldn't have gotten myself into this situation in the first place.