The Bengals' loss on Sunday wouldn't have played a major role on their Super Bowl odds, but Andy Dalton's injury has caused a serious drop in the Bengals' odds of winning the Lombardi Trophy. Did you ever think that we'd be saying that?
I'll just put this out there and say, I don't think the Bengals would have lost at all on Sunday had Dalton been playing. He drove the team 80 yards to the 5 yard line before he made a mistake pass that resulted in him breaking his thumb. That defense would not have been able to stop the Bengals' offense and the Bengals' defense stopped the Steelers' offense enough to win, had Dalton finished out the game.
Anyways, let's get back to the odds. The Bengals fell from 9-1 to 20-1 after the loss, according to Bovada. For those of you that thought the season was over, this should show you that Vegas certainly does not think it is. They are still rated better than many NFC teams and are still a top 10 team in the eyes of odds makers. Remember you have to get in the playoffs before you can win the Super Bowl and the Bengals are basically guaranteed a spot, very likely a home game, and possibly a bye. The 20-1 change is more reflective of the doubt surrounding whether Dalton can return and the uncertainty around AJ Mccarron since he has limited NFL snaps.
The Bengals still have all of their weapons and are a much better bet than the Steelers at this point. The Steelers could end up missing the playoffs, yet they have 15-2 odds to win the Super Bowl. That's just absurd and is only being driven down by the media hype and the Vegas passers through who are laying money on the Super Bowl.
With the Patriots getting back on track with the return of Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman on the horizon, they are now co-favorites with the Panthers to win the Super Bowl. The Cardinals had a slight drop as Seattle emerges as a Super Bowl contender again, how good does the Bengals' win over the Seahawks look now?
The biggest mover of them all was the Jacksonville Jaguars and that's because their win over the Colts gives them a shot to win out and win the AFC South. Like I mentioned earlier, it only takes a ticket to the dance to have a shot at the prom queen, so they went from 1000-1 to 300-1 odds. They're still a heavy longshot, but I think I'd be pretty happy holding a Jaguars $10 ticket at 1000-1, crazier things have happened.
A fun player prop bet to look at is the lines on AJ Mccarron's stats for this Sunday's game. I'll tell you what the oddsmakers are saying and then I'll tell you if I think they are correct. They are basically saying that they think the Bengals are going to play this Sunday's game with kid gloves on Mccarron and not ask him to do much. They also think he is more likely than not to make a mistake in that small amount of throws. They basically have set his numbers right at what the Niners have averaged giving up at home for touchdowns and yards for the season. You might be thinking that means they think he is good, but really it's a slight to McCarron since the Bengals have a high powered offense. Now, what do I think? I think the Niners have quit on the season and they just gave up 200 yards rushing to the Browns, so I think the Bengals are going to be run heavy and let Mccarron get his feet under him in the first half before turning him loose. I'd say he eclipses the yardage total and touchdown total the odds have indicated, but I also think he will throw an interception on Sunday in a blowout win for the Bengals.