FanPost

Jake's "Raw" Passing Grades for Andy Dalton vs. San Diego

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Hi CincyJungle! You may or may not know that I used to write for CincyJungle and used to do player participation work for Pro Football Focus. I never was part of the grading process myself. That said, I think I have an ok understanding of how it works, and fancy myself an ok football player evaluator.

So, this morning with the availability of All-22 via GamePass, I went through the San Diego game and broke down each of the Bengals' designed pass plays. I shared this on Twitter earlier today, but wanted to share it with this audience as well. The document includes a timestamp in case you want to find the plays for yourself, the down and distance, notes about the formation and throw, a grade, and other notes.

Note: I wasn't super consistent with what information went into each column as this was my first go, but plan to refine that next week. The "Throw" column will probably change to "play information" just information about the formation, the defense, and routes. Notes will change to "throw notes" and will include things like pressure, DB positioning, how good/bad the route was, and specific notes about the actual throw. I also plan to add "Depth of Target" and "Location" column, and maybe a "ball placement" column as well (though this will probably just go into the notes section instead). I'm also playing around with the idea of integrating the chart with Vines or Screenshots for a more interactive experience.

The goal here is to take a deep dive into Dalton's performance. A zero grade is a non-notable play. Something like a run of the mill swing pass, or Mohamed Sanu's crossing route on 3rd and 20. I used PFF's +/- 2 max/min grades (these should be extremely rare). Unlike PFF, I'm not normalizing, and I don't have a greatly refined process for these grades yet. Still, I think it's a fun way to get into some deep conversation around QB performance, a hot topic for Bengals fans!

Here's a link to the Google document, as I'm not sure how formatting will translate to SBN's text editor, and it's where I'll be recording this as long as I keep it up this year: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qML6h5FWNz6MRyUPFS_haGHPmbPeuSDEBn64oh4ZLpM/edit?usp=sharing

Q-Time Down-Distance Throw Grade Notes
1-14:53 1st-10 o24 Initially looks like an overthrow on bootleg to Jones, but Jones stumbled out of break on deep comeback and is late to ball. Still slight overthrow. -0.5
1-14:48 2nd-10 o24 Motion tackle trips into normal split 12 personnel. Dalton throws quick smoke to Green instead of running run play. 0
1-14:18 3rd-4 o30 11 personnel trips left Eifert inside slot left, Green wide right, Gio motions to virtually be 4th left slot guy. Left side runs clearout goes for Gio flat, throw is behind and forces Gio to stop. Missed easy throw, no chance at converting (Eifert missed the block anyway) -1 Borderline -0.5 but this close to LOS, gotta make that throw
1-13:36 1st-10 t19 21, I-form TE-R, LWR/RWR. Dalton throws smoke instead of give to Hill (who happened to have a massive hole) 0
1-12:58 2nd-7 t16 11, trips left TE-R HB-R, Chargers bring safety down pre-snap. Hill picks up Blitz and Dalton throws a perfect ball as Flowers turns back to LoS, 25 YiA TD 1.5 Boredline +1.0, but giving Dalton benefit of doubt that he intended super high ball placement
1-7:40 2nd-10 o20 12, TE-SL/TE-SR, RWR/LWR Pistol, Quick swing screen to Gio 0
1-4:13 1st-10 o42 13, 2 TE-L, Hewitt goes TE-WR, AJ ends up SRWR. 4 verticals with Gio checkdown; AJ might be open on deep post but Dalton dumps off to Gio on short out 0
1-1:45 1st-17 o45 22, TE-L/TE-R, trips right Gio inside slot, deep square in to AJ caught at 42, 18 YiA. 1 Laser of a throw, ball placement maybe a TOUCH off as Green jumps and goes to ground immediately after catch; very clean pocket/throwing lane
2-15:00 2nd-8 t18 Shotgun, Extra OL (Fisher) TE-R, Eifert wide left alone, Hill HB-R, single high safety for SD with 8 in box. Max protect (3 routes) Overthrows Eifert go route. -0.5 Overthrow well out of bounds when back shoulder may have been better choice anyway
2-14:56 3rd-8 t18 Shotgun, 11, Eifert slot left, Gio HB-L. Looks like 2 man under, SD covers it. No one open. Throw-away. 0 Throwaway under pressure, credit Dalton for avoiding sack
2-9:18 1st-10 o16 12, Eifert motions to "LWR", 3 step drop, quick out to Eifert 0.5 Easy throw, but it's on time and on target and allows Eifert YAC
2-7:25 1-10 o40 Wishbone motions into 11 stack, shotgun HB-R. Dalton wanted Eifert seam but safety took it away; Whit holds but pressure forces TA anyway 0 Pressure, throwaway all 4 verts and not enough time to get to 2nd target
2-7:18 1st-20 o30 Touch "pass" jet motion, effectively Burkhead run play 0
2-6:39 2nd-12 o38 Shotgun, HB-R, TE-L, 2RWR. No safety deep, 8 in box. Safety rotates deep on CB blitz.Throw goes hot to Hill for no gain on unblocked blitz 0 SD rotates into a blitz at last minute that's not picked up, Verrett facemasks Green on the play
2-6:08 1st-10 t45 Shotgun HB-L, 12 tight vs. single high. Dalton audibles pre-play. As soon as safety crashes on Green drag, Dalton pulls trigger on Jones post. Perfect throw. 1.5
2-1:49 1st-10 o23 Shotgun 01, TE screen on-target 0
2-1:19 1st-10 o35 Shotgun 11, TE-L HB-L, doubles right; Dalton probably a bit late pulling trigger on Eifert seam, hit as thrown. Lucky "incomplete" ruling. -0.5 Grade mitigated by blown blocks. Just before Te'o comes unblocked, looks like Z or Gio could easily pick it up.
3-9:55 2nd-9 o21 Shotgun 12, tight; Cover 3 takes away route combos, scramble nearly goes for a decent gain before shoestring tackle 0 Nearly +0.5; good decision to not throw it, looks like there's a chance to gain yards running
3-9:12 3rd-6 o24 Shotgun 11, HB-L TE-WL, Trips right. Dalton correctly IDs single deep, Verrett 1-1 with Eifert, trusts big TE 0.5 Throw is on time, on target, maybe even a fraction early. Verrett might be baiting throw a bit but Eifert is too big to step in front of. Eifert's route rounds out a bit, probably causing play to be closer than needs to be.
3-5:14 1st-10 o48 Shotgun 11, Burkhead WL, Eifert SiR; Chargers get unblocked pressure and Dalton doesn't really have a hot option, smart throw-away 0 TA
3-5:08 2nd-10 o48 Shotgun 11, double right TE-L, WL, HB-L; Another DB blitz gets unblocked pressure (SD changes play after Dalton changes play, presumably to blitz) -0.5 Te'o nearly gets interception, reading hot route perfectly. More athletic LB makes the play. Sanu is the better choice on an in but Jones is the hot read and Dalton doesn't have time to look right.
3-5:04 3rd-10 o48 Shotgun 11, Eifert HB-L, Gio HB-R. Green burns Verrett single coverage, throw is OB -0.5 Maybe a -1, Dalton has a clean pocket and a clean look at Green, who ends up with 5 yards of separation, but the throw doesn't give him a chance. Bailout holding flag underneath.
3-4:56 1st-10 t47 Unbalanced OL, Whit/Smith right and eligible Fisher at LT, playaction sucks LBs in and no one goes with Fisher. Nice and easy touch pass for a big gain on broken coverage. 0.5
3-2:59 2nd-g t3 Heavy! 02 w/ Peko at FB and Fisher as 3rd TE. SD doesn't bite on PA, throw-away smart move 0 Honestly, this play is a bad design. PA left and the right side of the play is too visible/easy to diagnose. I don't like it.
3-2:54 3rd-g t3 Shotgun 11, double right TE-R, HB-L, WL. Overthows Sanu on easy corner route. More air or accuracy and it's a TD. -1 Easy/short throw gets away from Dalton to cost the TD. Bad accuracy on short routes is how you get bad grades.
4-14:25 1st-10 o37 Shotgun 21, HB-L, Burkhead WL, TE-R, 2RWR. Cover 1 Robber; overthrows Burkhead by a ton -0.5 Badly overthrown. Maybe -1 to harsher graders. Note to self: Figure out a consistent way to grade overthrows.
4-13:47 3rd-10 o36 Shotgun 11, HB-L TE-L, double left. Chargers show sugar, zone blitz forces dumpoff pick play, Green called for OPI 0
4-13:22 3rd-20 o26 Shotgun 11, HB-L, TE-SLm. Clearout goes underneath to Sanu on wide open cross vs. deep zone. 0
4-8:58 2nd-g t4 Shotgun 11, HB-SiR, TE-SoR. Dalton wants Sanu bubble screen, pass deflected at LOS and nearly picked as a result. 0
4-8:54 2nd-g t9 Shotgun 12, HB-R, Eifert WR Hewitt SR, no safety help for Eifert on go. Nice ball placement in back of EZ as Dalton sees Eifert get by Flowers. 1
Total 1.5 Sum of raw grades. More good than bad this week from Dalton, particularly on the TD tosses. Some short misses and overthrows prevents it from being higher.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.