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Buying in on bye possibility, where will Chip Kelly land and Super Bowl odds

Even with the Bengals loss they still have a pretty decent shot at getting the round one bye. Which team will hire Chip Kelly; could he be headed for a reunion with Mariota? Lastly, we take our final regular season look at the Super Bowl odds.

By Cody Tewmey
Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Let's start off with how Jon Gruden finished his broadcast call after the Bengals game against the Broncos, "what a way to lose a game." That loss to Denver hurt the Bengals' chances at getting a playoff bye and crushed fans at the same time. The good thing is, the Bengals still have a decent chance at getting the buy and the Steelers only have about a 41% chance to even make the playoffs now. I've used the win probabilities from fivethirtyeight.com to help me break this all down. I know some think their numbers are "off" based on last weeks comments, but they are the only quasi credible site I know of.

The scenarios in which the Bengals get the bye are as follows. The first thing that MUST happen is the Broncos have to lose on Sunday to the Chargers; I've always loved Philip Rivers, haven't you? If that happens, as long as the Bengals or the Chiefs win, the Bengals will receive the bye. If the Bengals lose and the Chiefs win along with a Broncos loss, it becomes a two way tie for the bye between the Bengals and Chiefs, and the Bengals have that tiebreaker. The good thing is, the Bengals play early and the Broncos play late so the Bengals can put some pressure on the Broncos with an early win.

Probability the Bengals get the bye
Denver Probability of a Loss Bengals Probability of a Win Chiefs Probability of a Win Calculation Bengals or Chiefs Win Chance of the Bengals Bye
16% 77% 85% Denver loss (16%) * Bengals win or KC Win (96%) =Chance of bye (.77) x (.85) - (.77 x .85) = 96% 15.36%

As you can see, the big factor is if the Broncos lose. Any given Sunday, right? No one thought Baltimore would beat Pittsburgh last week either. The chances are high that either the Chiefs or Bengals will win, so it's time to hope that Philip Rivers has one of those games where he is unstoppable. Chip Kelly was fired this week by the Eagles and his name is already swirling around as the possible future coach of some other teams. One of those teams is actually the Browns. Hey, they could save money by firing Farmer and Pettine and replacing him with one person named Chip. I was channeling my inner Browns logic there. I have added the betting information from two different sites below. It shows a few things. The first is that they expect he will get another shot in the NFL right away, but I'd argue that these odds would not be as strong if our own Anthony Cosenza's USC Trojans had an opening at head coach still. Anyways, the most logical place he ends up is in Tennessee and that's why the odds are so heavy for that. Mariota already knows his system and they get along, as far as we all know. Cleveland is the second favorite and I would argue that is just because their front office is such a train wreck. They have been trying to land a big name, whether it is a player or a coach, to excite that fanbase. Although I was kind of joking in the beginning, they are the only organization that would consider giving him GM responsibilities because they aren't sold on either person currently holding the coach or GM responsibilities. I think he is going to end up in Tennessee as long as he isn't insistent on being the GM there. The reason why the lowest odds are with any NCAA team is because that gives so many options. Say Brian Kelly takes an NFL gig, they might bring in Chip or any other big NCAA school that loses their coach after the bowl games.


The Arizona Cardinals look like the best team in the NFL right now and the Super Bowl odds now reflect that. Lets all just think back to the last team that even challenged them at home...ah that feels good. The Bengals, when fully healthy, can beat anyone. Right now, the Steelers have better odds to win the Super Bowl and the same odds to win the AFC as the Bengals, yet they only have about a 40 percent chance at even making the playoffs. You might be like Jay Morrison and wonder how can that possibly be?

With the injury to Andy Dalton and the uncertainty of when or if he will return, the Bengals are considered weakened, but already in the playoffs. In the Steelers' case, they are starting to get healthy, have an explosive offense, along with the national following/perception that get bettors to the window putting money on them. I think its a fool's bet because I don't think their defense is strong enough to go all the way, even if they do get in. They Bengals saw a small increase in their odds to win the Super Bowl despite their Week 16 loss. There is a two fold reasoning from the oddsmakers. They are now officially the AFC North champions and are guaranteed a home game, and they played tough against a good team on the road with their backup quarterback. This leads the oddsmarkers to believe that if they can get far enough along to get Andy Dalton back, they could be a real force in the postseason. The oddsmakers always want a team like New England to win the Super Bowl, a team that has never really had great payout odds during the whole season. They don't want teams like Cincinnati, Carolina, or Kansas City to win it all because they would have to pay out some 30/1 or more tickets, which cuts into their profit.

Let me know if there are any odds you want me to discuss in next week's article in the comments and I will happily add them. Happy New Year to everyone.

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