Since being drafted in the third round of the 2014 NFL Draft, Will Clarke has found playing time hard to come by on a very talented Bengals' defensive line. After two seasons, he has only accumulated seven tackles and 0.5 career sacks. But despite the slow start to the former Mountaineer's career, could 2016 be his breakout season?
Why this Bold Prediction is absurd:
First off, Clarke is no guarantee to make the roster or even see much playing time. Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson have securely held the starter’s roles for a while, consuming the lion’s share of the defensive snaps. Also, Clarke was beat out by the undrafted Wallace Gilberry for tertiary spot behind Dunlap and Johnson last year, and by an old Robert Geathers the year before. None of this seems to coincide with Clarke suddenly surpassing Johnson’s sack totals this season, so how could this bold prediction possibly be anything but absurd?
Why this Bold Prediction is feasible:
Wallace Gilberry is now a member of the Detroit Lions, meaning that the third spot on the defensive end depth chart is up for grabs. The Bengals did not draft a defensive end, or sign one in free agency, meaning Clarke should be in the hunt with Margus Hunt for that third spot. Between the two of them, Clarke, should have the inside track over the former track and field star.
In 2014 Hunt played on 16.6 percent of the Bengals’ defensive snaps, compared to only 5.5 percent for Clarke. But in 2015 that role was reversed, with Hunt seeing his participation drop from 16.6 percent to a mere 5.3 percent, while Clarke’s snaps rose from 5.5 percent to 12.4 percent. All signs point to Clarke, at the very least, assuming Gilberry’s role as the team’s third defensive end.
Over the last couple of seasons, the Bengals second defensive end (Johnson last year and Gilberry the year before) played in about 75 percent of the snaps. Their third defensive end (Gilberry last year and Geathers the year before) played in about 55 percent of defensive snaps. Their fourth defensive end only played in about 15 percent of the defensive snaps. There is a huge drop from being third to fourth. With Clarke assuming the role of the third defensive end in 2016, his snap totals should jump up about five fold. That huge jump in playing time should aid in Clarke’s opportunities to create sacks.
Johnson has been in the league since the Bengals drafted him in 2009, and while he managed to play in all 16 games last season, he began the 2015 season with a knee injury, and ended with a back injury. His 30th birthday, when conventional thinking starts to write off NFL players as past their prime, is only about half a year away. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to think that these injuries start to affect Johnson’s playing time, and positively benefit Clarke’s playing time, and potential for more sacks.
Throughout six of his seven seasons, Johnson is averaging under 4.0 sacks per season. The one outlier was 2012, boosted by a three sack game against the Redskins, where he abused a backup left tackle to repeatedly take down a rookie quarterback making just his third NFL start. Basically, Johnson has always been a good run defender, but has never been a pass rushing threat. Even if Johnson stays healthy and retains the starter’s role, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see Clarke rotate in for Johnson on passing downs, reprising the Gilberry’s role on the defensive line. This would be another opportunity for Clarke to increase his sack totals, to the detriment of Johnson’s totals.
Another possibility would be for Clarke to outright beat Johnson for the starting spot as the right defensive end. Johnson is signed for three more years, and the Bengals tend to be loyal to a fault, but that doesn’t preclude Johnson shifting from starter to backup if Clarke emerges in his third season. His snap totals more than doubled last year, so he is clearly trending in the right direction. Perhaps that trend could take him past Johnson?