In his brief two-year career, Jeremy Hill has seen some high highs and some low lows. Cincinnati fans claim they’ll never forget the fumble he lost in the 2016 Wild Card loss to the Steelers—and maybe that’s true—but if the running back is able to help his team earn that all-too-elusive playoff victory (and perhaps more), odds are, fans will embrace him once again.
And when you’re Jeremy Hill, anything is possible. Despite a down year in 2015, the 23-year-old running back leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons. What makes his feat even more impressive is that he only started half of the Bengals’ regular season matchups in his rookie year. Hill’s incredible late-season run sparked a fourth-straight playoff berth for the Bengals in a year marred by injury. One could argue that if it weren’t for Hill’s dominance in the ground game, the Bengals could’ve been a .500 team or worse in 2014.
#Bengals RB Jeremy Hill is one of only 11 players to average at least 5 Y/A on 200+ carries in a season since 2011. pic.twitter.com/VC1kyhawzE
— Connor Howe (@HoweNFL) July 27, 2016
Hill’s 2014 season was buried by a disappointing 2015, but it is a season Bengals fans shouldn’t be forgetting. After all, the former LSU running back was the league’s best back down the stretch of the 2014 season, guiding the Bengals to a 7-3 record from Week 8 on in the midst of several key injuries.
So which Jeremy Hill will the Bengals get in 2016: the one who averaged 5.1 yards per carry, tallied 83.6 scrimmage yards per game and broke off eight runs for 20 or more yards (three of which went for at least 40) as a rookie, or the one who averaged 3.6 yards per carry and tallied a meager 54.5 scrimmage yards per game in 2015? And can the running back finally learn to hold onto the football after fumbling the ball eight times in his first two seasons and a ninth time in the Bengals’ most recent playoff loss?
Player Info
Height: 6’1"
Weight: 233 pounds
Age: 23
College: LSU
Hometown: Baton Rouge, LA
Position: Running back
Contract Status
2016 Stock
NFL pundits will attribute Hill’s 2014 season to Hue Jackson’s coaching, but if that were the case, then why was he different in 2015? The answer is simple: Cincinnati spent more time in shotgun formations than it spent in I-formations. When a fullback leads the way for Hill, he is a much more impactful player. Under new offensive coordinator Ken Zampese, the Bengals offense will likely have different tendencies than it had under the departed Jackson, but regardless of how much I-formation Cincinnati employs, the third-year running back simply needs to learn how to become a more impactful player out of shotgun formations.
That being said, when Hill is on his game, there’s no stopping him. The Bengals’ 2014 opponents knew what was coming when Cincinnati lined up in the I-formation, yet they couldn’t slow down Hill, who notched 100 or more rushing yards in five of eight starts during his rookie season. If he can embrace the importance of ball security and become more effective out of shotgun, Hill can re-establish himself as a top back, potentially even making the case for himself as the best running back in the NFL. Hill still has a ways to go before making that argument, but the scenario is still within the realm of possibility for the youngster. A bounceback 2016 season would be a great story for the running back who looked like a budding superstar before his 2015 struggles.
Roster Outlook
Hill’s a lock to make the roster, as he’s easily one of the team’s top two running backs. Where he stacks on the depth chart, however, is a much more difficult question to answer.
It’s hard to predict how Zampese will employ his running backs, but I think betting on Hill to come out the gates as Cincinnati’s starting running back is the safer call to make. Bernard is a talented player, but he’s better suited for a complementary role than he’s suited to be the team’s featured back. That’s not to say Hill will out-snap Bernard—as the latter has tallied more total snaps than the former in each of Hill’s two NFL seasons. But as long as Hill can average at least four yards per carry and improve his ball security, he should remain the Bengals’ starting running back.
Hopefully Hill, who seems determined to make up for his Wild Card blunder, can help the Bengals’ running game take off like it did in 2014. If he’s able to do so, there will be less pressure on Andy Dalton, who lost two of his favorite weapons over the offseason and could potentially be down his starting tight end in the early season.