What if Bengals listened to ESPN's Mel Kiper and Todd McShay for last 7 Drafts?

Since Marvin Lewis took over as the Bengals’ head coach more than a decade ago, Cincinnati has been one of the better teams at drafting in the NFL. Lately, it seems as though the team has stepped up their game even more in the Draft. Selecting superstars in the first few rounds and landing gems on days two and three of each respective Draft occurs seemingly on an annual basis. Whether or not you agree with Cincinnati’s philosophy, it’s hard to ignore that the Bengals have done well in the Draft — after all, the team has made the playoffs in five of the past six years, despite only signing bargain bin free agents and rarely ever making trades.

Now that it’s Draft season, we’re getting into the testing, scouting events, workouts, Pro Days and all of that fun stuff. Blogging the Boys featured an awesome piece which examined the team’s successes in the first round, comparing Dallas’ actual picks with those of ESPN’s Mel Kiper and Todd McShay in their final mock drafts each season. Today, we’re going to do the same for the Bengals.

Keep in mind, the only mock draft we’re counting in these examples is the final mock draft published by each respective writer before the actual draft. If we were to count every mock draft Kiper and McShay have published, it’s likely they would’ve correctly guessed many players to get drafted in Cincinnati, as it feels like the two publish at least one mock draft per week. For perspective, here is a summary of the last seven Cincinnati Bengals first-round picks, along with some metrics we’ll be using to evaluate the team’s successes and failures.

It’s not quite that of the Cowboys, if you checked out Blogging the Boys’ piece, but the Bengals’ first-round Draft hauls over the past seven years have been really good. Nine collective Pro Bowl seasons, 23 of a maximum 28 starter seasons and a modestly strong Approximate Value (AV) of 169. For a team that seems to almost take pride in its willingness to bring players along slowly as they begin their careers, the Approximate Value makes sense for the Bengals. Guys like Darqueze Dennard, Cedric Ogbuehi and William Jackson all have yet to make a significant contribution in their respective NFL careers, with both Dennard and Ogbuehi struggling early. Yet it seems to be around Year 3 or so when the majority of the Bengals’ first round draft picks have really turned a corner. Tyler Eifert caught 13 touchdowns in his third NFL season after finding the end zone twice in his previous two. A.J. Green set a career-high in yards (1,426) and tied a career-high in touchdowns (11) in Year 3.

Yet for some, like Dre Kirkpatrick, the development process has taken a bit longer. Kirkpatrick showed promise in his third season, picking off three passes and returning one for a touchdown, but it wasn’t until 2015 that he became a full-time starter and then it took until Year 5 — 2016 — for Kirkpatrick to really step his game up to another level. The Bengals will surely hope Dennard can hit his stride in Year 4, while Ogbuehi aims to improve in his third season.

Keep in mind a few things here. One, AV — while a great statistic — is imperfect. That said, there aren’t many better statistics to use in this case. Also, the AV numbers in this table are allocated to the team drafting a given player, not the team said player eventually joined following a departure from the team that drafted him. For example, Jermaine Gresham’s career AV totals are all attributed to the Bengals, even though he left for the Cardinals following the completion of his rookie contract.

The Bengals rank 20th here, but in all reality, they’re a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to AV numbers. The difference between the 11th-ranked Steelers (166) and 20th-ranked Bengals (154) isn’t much. It’s also important to consider some teams, like the Rams and Vikings, have had the advantage of one or two more Draft selections than the Bengals, as well as the fact that players at certain positions receiver higher AV grades than those at others. We’ll get into that later.

With that, let’s use Kiper and McShay’s mock drafts to evaluate how their picks would hold up in comparison with the Bengals’ past seven Draft hauls. First, here are the players Kiper had the Bengals picking in his final mock drafts of each of the past seven years.

That’s a flashy haul for the Bengals. Of course, hindsight is 20-20, but adding impact playmakers in Dez Bryant and Cordy Glenn, in particular, would’ve been huge for Cincinnati. Instead, the Bengals ended up with Gresham (to be fair, the team wouldn’t have Green if it had drafted Bryant) and Zeitler, which in retrospect isn’t much different. That said, it would be nice to currently have a guy (in Glenn) capable of replacing Andrew Whitworth at left tackle down the line. Eddie Lacy slipped all the way to the 61st overall pick, meaning the Bengals even had a second opportunity to pick him. Instead, the team swung for the fences and took Margus Hunt.

Dennard’s selection has often been criticized in hindsight, with Bradley Roby being selected 31st overall by the Broncos. Jason Verrett was also picked one spot behind Dennard, and he has been the best of the three corners by a wide margin. (That said, he hasn’t been able to stay on the field, dealing with a litany of injuries — it seemed to be an issue for him coming into the league, and it’s stuck with him during his brief career.) We’ve still yet to see whether Dennard can live up to his billing, though the proverbial clock on Cincinnati’s corner seems to be ticking. On the bright side, I’m not convinced having Roby — who has been the number three cornerback in Denver throughout his career — would be much different than having Dennard.

And finally, Kiper’s last two selections — Andrus Peat and Josh Doctson — were not available when the Bengals were on the clock. Peat was taken eight picks before Cedric Ogbuehi, and Doctson was taken two picks before William Jackson. Peat has started 23 games in his first two years in the league and while he’s still developing and not lighting the field on fire, he’s been better than Ogbuehi. As for Doctson, he played in two before landing on Injured Reserve in his rookie season. Similarly, William Jackson III landed on I.R. before playing in any games this season. When Doctson and the other first-round worthy receivers weren’t available for the Bengals to select at pick No. 24, the team waited until the second round to draft a wide receiver and Tyler Boyd did quite well in his rookie season.

On to McShay’s picks for the Bengals.

McShay’s Draft wasn’t much different than that of Kiper. We already touched on Bryant, Lacy and Roby. Stephon Gilmore is one of those guys Bengals fans seem to wish the team had selected in hindsight, but he was selected seven picks in front of Kirkpatrick. DeCastro was also taken before Zeitler, after the Bengals traded down and added a third-round pick. And for what it’s worth, even with hindsight, I’m taking Zeitler and a third-rounder over DeCastro. It’s a bummer Brandon Thompson hasn’t lived up to his third-round billing, but the Bengals still got away great with that first-round trade with the Patriots.

That leaves Laquon Treadwell, who was selected one pick before Jackson, and Jake Fisher, who the Bengals selected in the second round.

If I’m picking between the two mock drafts, I’m taking Kiper’s, but both his and McShay’s would’ve likely been successful hauls for the Bengals. Looking back, I’m very impressed by what the Bengals have been able to do in the first round. Sure, the team’s more recent picks haven’t panned out as fans would’ve liked, but I still think there’s time to give some of the younger players (Dennard and Ogbuehi) more time before rushing to judgement, just as we’re giving Jackson and Andrew Billings time. Hopefully Cincinnati’s more recent first-round picks can live up to their Draft billing sooner rather than later.

Looking back, which picks would you have liked best for the Bengals? The real Draft picks, Kiper’s picks or McShay’s picks?