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Bengals vs Dolphins: Odds, expert picks, analysis, predictions for NFL Week 5

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The experts have suddenly (and shockingly) fallen in love with the 3-1 Bengals.

Cincinnati Bengals v Miami Dolphins Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

September has ended, Red October has begun and the Bengals are sitting atop the AFC North. With momentum on their side, Cincinnati starts a two-game home stretch on Sunday and will host the AFC East-leading Miami Dolphins, who are trying to keep their lead against the Patriots, who just shut them down last Sunday and already won this week on Thursday Night Football.

The Bengals’ offense will be without some of its best weapons (Giovani Bernard, John Ross, Tyler Eifert), but at this point most NFL teams are dealing with injuries in major areas. Do the experts and oddsmakers think the Bengals can come out on top in this matchup of current divisional leaders?

Odds

The Bengals are currently six-point favorites against the Dolphins, according to Bovada. The Bengals opened as 5.5-point favorites so the line hasn’t moved that much. It is hard to pinpoint why the line has expanded in the Bengals’ favor. The major change is that we now know running back Joe Mixon will be available this week. However, Cincinnati will be without John Ross, Giovani Bernard and Billy Price. Of course Vontaze Burfict will be making his return from suspension this week as well, but that was known when the opening line was made.

The total is set to 48.5. Last week the Bengals and Falcons surpassed the 50 point line before halftime was over, but the Dolphins don’t have nearly the same fire power as the Falcons, and their defense is far more opportunistic as they lead the NFL in interceptions. All of that said, it still feels safe to bet the over in this one as the Bengals have only scored less than 30 points once this season, which happened in a loss at Carolina.

Here are some trends for both teams

  • Cincinnati is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games
  • Cincinnati is 5-1 straight up in its last six games
  • The total has gone over in five of Cincinnati’s last five games
  • Cincinnati is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games at home
  • Cincinnati is 5-2 straight up in its last seven games at home
  • The total has gone over in four of Cincinnati’s last six games at home
  • Cincinnati is 3-9 against the spread in its last 12 games when playing Miami
  • Cincinnati is 3-11 straight up in its last 14 games when playing Miami
  • The total has gone under in five of Cincinnati’s last six games when playing Miami
  • Cincinnati is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games when playing at home against Miami
  • Cincinnati is 2-7 straight up in its last nine games when playing at home against Miami
  • The total has gone under in four of Cincinnati’s last five games when playing at home against Miami
  • Miami is 5-8-2 against the spread in its last 15 games
  • The total has gone over in 10 of Miami’s last 15 games
  • The total has gone under in four of Miami’s last six games
  • Miami is 1-6 against the spread in its last seven games on the road
  • Miami is 1-6 straight up in its last seven games on the road
  • Miami is 9-3 against the spread in its last 12 games when playing Cincinnati
  • Miami is 11-3 straight up in its last 14 games when playing Cincinnati
  • The total has gone under in 5 of Miami’s last six games when playing Cincinnati
  • Miami is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
  • Miami is 7-2 straight up in its last nine games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
  • The total has gone under in four of Miami’s last five games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

Expert picks

  • Fox Sports is predicting a 24.4 to 21.3 victory for the Bengals
  • All 10 of ESPN’s experts picked the Bengals over the Dolphins
  • All seven of SB Nation’s experts went with the Bengals as well
  • CBS Sports only had one expert pick against Cincinnati this week
  • NFL Pick Watch, which takes all the picks from around the web into consideration, has the Bengals receiving a staggering 97 percent of the picks and all 20 of the top-ranked pickers per the site are going with Cincinnati.

Last week the Bengals were fairly big underdogs against the Falcons as far as picks went. The Bengals managing to beat the Falcons in Atlanta seems to have granted them a world’s worth of confidence. It also helps that the Dolphins just got stomped last week, but this is still a kind of matchup that experts would usually be split on more in recent history. It says so much about how the perception of this team is changing that they are being picked this heavily.