Bengals vs. Broncos: Analysis, odds, expert picks and predictions for Week 13

In a game between two 5-6 squads, the Bengals will be hosting the Broncos on Sunday. The AFC standings have both teams neck-and-neck, but it’s pretty obvious from how the oddsmakers and experts view this game that the Bengals have a long way to go.

Odds

The Bengals are currently 5.5 point underdogs at home to the Broncos, according to Bovada. For a home team to be favored against to that degree despite sharing the same record as the opposition, that tells you a lot about how the oddsmakers view this game. The home team usually gets nod as the favorite if both teams are evenly talented, but with each team trending in opposite directions, it isn’t hard to comprehend why the Broncos can be considered a whole touchdown Bengals despite playing on the road.

This spread obviously has to do with the Bengals only winning one of their last six games as well as losing Andy Dalton for the season to a thumb injury. It is interesting that with the news of A.J. Green saying he will return this week that the spread didn’t get closer, but to be fair, he hasn’t had a full practice under his belt yet.

Betting trends

• Cincinnati is 1-5 against the spread in its last six games
• Cincinnati is 1-5 straight up in its last six games
• The total has gone over in four of Cincinnati’s last five games
• Cincinnati is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games at home
• The total has gone over in four of Cincinnati’s last six games at home
• Cincinnati is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games when playing Denver
• Cincinnati is 4-15 straight up in its last 19 games when playing Denver
• The total has gone over in four of Cincinnati’s last six games when playing Denver
• Cincinnati is 2-4 against the spread in its last six games when playing at home against Denver
• Cincinnati is 2-4 straight up in its last six games when playing at home against Denver
• Denver is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games
• Denver is 7-15-1 against the spread in its last 23 games
• Denver is 7-16 straight up in its last 23 games
• The total has gone under in five of Denver’s last six games
• Denver is 4-11 against the spread in its last 15 games on the road
• Denver is 3-12 straight up in its last 15 games on the road
• The total has gone under in five of Denver’s last seven games on the road
• Denver is 2-4 against the spread in its last six games when playing Cincinnati
• Denver is 15-4 straight up in its last 19 games when playing Cincinnati
• The total has gone over in four of Denver’s last six games when playing Cincinnati
• Denver is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
• Denver is 4-2 straight up in its last six games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

Expert picks and predictions

• Fox Sports is projecting a 25.9-21.8 victory for the Broncos over the Bengals
• All nine of ESPN’s experts picked Denver to win on Sunday
• Two of CBS Sports’ experts went with the Bengals
• All seven of SB Nation’s experts picked the Broncos
• NFL Pick Watch, which takes into account picks from experts across the web, have the Bengals only receiving nine percent of the picks.
• TeamRankings projects a Broncos win by a 26-21 margin.
• numberFire has Denver winning 25-19

Clearly experts aren’t high on a team that has struggled for over a month and just lost their starting quarterback. There is still reason to believe this team could be entertaining, but it is hard to think this is the same caliber of team that went 4-1 to start the season. Jeff Driskel will be the driving force behind any sort of late season surge, and we’ll see on Sunday how much fight this team has left in them.