A.J. Green has pretty consistently been one of the top fantasy football wide receivers since entering the league in 2011, and Pro Football Focus thinks that could be the case again in 2018.
Green has 15/1 odds on being the top wide receiver in fantasy, according to PFF’s Dan Clasgens. Here’s what Clasgens, who placed Green in the “if things break right” category, had to say.
The Bengals’ offense was a mess last season, including boasting one of the league’s worst offensive lines. The unit never got into sync and Green’s numbers reflected that, as he posted career lows in yards per route run (2.1), catch rate (56.0), and yards per game (67.4).
Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, who took over a few weeks into last season, plans to put more of his own stamp on the playbook in 2018 and the team made big improvements this offseason to the offensive line. Both of those things should both help lead Green to a big bounceback.
Green’s 2017 season wasn’t his best statistically, but he still posted 1,078 yards, which was good for 112th among all receivers last year. It was the sixth time in seven years that he’s recorded 1,000+ receiving yards.
There’s plenty of uncertainty as to how the Bengals’ offense will fare in 2018, as Lazor has plenty of changes left to make and the offensive line will need to be better, but regardless it’s not likely that Green falls short of his 2017 numbers, and it’d be surprising if he didn’t eclipse them.
He had three games with 100+ receiving yards in 2017, all of which came after Lazor took over as offensive coordinator. Plus, with John Ross getting healthy and Tyler Eifert returning from injury, Cincinnati will have other weapons for opposing defenses to worry about, thus giving Green a chance to do more damage with his pass targets.
Green was right around the middle of the pack on Clasgens’ odds list, which featured 10 receivers. The obvious favorites are Antonio Brown (who has 5/2 odds, and was the top scorer in fantasy among wide receivers last year), DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr, who were all placed in the same category. The other receivers listed in the same category as Green were Keenan Allen and Davante Adams.
Green finished 10th among wide receivers in fantasy points for 2017, as he recorded 226.8 points in PPR standard scoring. While his offensive supporting cast may not be the best, he’s shown time and time again that he can make a major impact even while being consistently double teamed.