FanPost

Defense Grading vs Ravens & Cardinals

I've been watching film this week on our defense from both the ARZ and BAL games. Just finished the BAL game so I figured I'd post my results and update when I finish ARZ.

My system grades on a +3 to -3 scale, and gives every player a 0 by default with 0 meaning an "average" player would be expected to perform the same on that given play. +1 and -1 are handed out for doing something positively or negatively, whether that's impacting the play in some way or winning/losing a 1v1 away from the play etc. +2/-2 are saved for great plays or egregiously bad play (I didn't hand out a single +2 vs BAL and only two -2s). +3/-3 would be for literal gamechanging plays.

I also give players an "active" or "inactive" tag each play to denote whether they actively participated in the play or not. Examples include a FS playing "run defense" from 20yds deep on a 1yd run up the middle. Or a CB (and WR) on the backside of a run standing around and not blocking or playing any defense. This allows me to filter out the "inactive" snaps and only focus on plays where guys actually did something.

So here goes...

Overall Summary:

The defense as a unit graded at +47 for the game - for reference I had a +28 in just the first half against ARZ so not quite as good overall. However the splits among the personnel groups were much different between the two games (scores are ARZ/BAL, and again the ARZ score is only for 1 half):

DT: +26, +12

DE: +1, +21

LB: -1, -9

CB: -1, +5

S: +3, +18

Our DT play overall was much less destructive than it was against ARZ. A lot of this had to do with the dumb QB Spy role they forced Atkins to play - he was a +18 all by himself in 1 half against ARZ while our entire DT score against BAL was just +12 (of which Atkins was +11). Just stupid.

Our DEs however were much more productive against BAL. I thought Hubbard in particular played a very good game - he was responsible for +14 of the +21 total from the group. "Group" in this case is just Hubbard and Lawson.

The LBs score at -9 was saved by a great 2nd half - they were a dismal -16 in the 1st half compared to +7 in the 2nd. Vigil and Brown both played much better after haltfime IMO.

Run defense continues to be an issue from our corners which pulls their overall grading down. Through both games I have our CBs at -9 for run defense to +12 in coverage and that includes a -3 coverage grade from McRae/McTyer.

The safeties were pretty good as a group but most of that was Bates - I thought Bates had an excellent game against BAL. I had him at -1 in the 1st half against ARZ but a +13 against BAL with a +11 grade in coverage that included several PBUs.

Now to get into players specficially...any time I mention snaps at this point it will refer to "active" snaps not total snaps.

DT:

Geno Atkins: I already touched on Atkins going from a +18 in one half against ARZ to just a +11 in a full game against BAL, thanks to the dumb contain they had him playing half the time. This helps explain why he went from a +8 pass rush grade against ARZ (just 12 snaps) to only a +7 against BAL (28 snaps).

But that isn't the whole story - I have Atkins at just a +4 for run defense (28 snaps) compared to +10 in one half against ARZ. This comes down to the double-teams and what I'll dub The Yanda Effect.

Andrew Billings: Billings played very similar in both games from what I saw. He had a +5 run defense grade (26 snaps) but just +1 pass rush (16 snaps). This is definitely a "good" performance from a NT against a team who ran off the edge what seemed like 90% of the time.

Josh Tupou: Tupou was...decent, which is about what I'd expect from a backup NT. He was -2 run defense (29 snaps) and +0 in 7 pass rush attempts. Absolutely no push on interior pass rushes but does do okay against the run.

Andrew Brown: I have him included here because by definition the 290lb'er is a DT. But he did mainly play an edge role in the BAL game with Dunlap out. Atkins, Billings, Tupou, and Wren played a combined 166 of 168 snaps at a true DT position, while Brown lined up at DE/ED roughly 3/4 of the time. And his grading bears this out as well - he was an okay -2 in run defense (17 snaps), but generated zero pressure with a +0 across 20 attempts. It's embarassing he's our #3 DE right now.

Renell Wren: Not much to see here - his run defense was not good (-2 over 13 snaps) but he did get a +1 pass rush on just 4 attempts. Would like to see him get some more snaps at 3T when we are in obvious passing situations.

ED:

Sam Hubbard: I thought this was a pretty good game from Hubbard. Against ARZ he had a lot of issues against the run, grading at -3 in just 19 snaps. He buoyed up his overall grading with a +4 pass rush in 12 attempts, but the issues against the run were glaringly obvious. However he was quite a bit better against BAL with a +7 run grade across 34 snaps, a marked improvement. This could be attributed to his performance in a 4-3 vs 3-4 edge role against the run. Against ARZ we ran a 3-4 front ZERO times in the 1st half and he was -3 in 19 run snaps. But we ran a 3-4 roughly half the run plays against BAL and Hubbard was +4 in 13 run snaps. Just another reason why we need to be playing more 3-4 fronts.

His pass rush wasn't as efficient against BAL, just +6 (29 snaps) compared to the +4 (12) against ARZ. He seems inconsistent right now - I noticed several times where he had great burst off the edge and also used an inside spin counter move once, but other times he just looks slow and doesn't really do anything. Could be fatigue given that he played like 85% of the game against BAL.

LB:

Nick Vigil: I mentioned earlier the 1st half/2nd half splits for the LBs. Vigil in particular was AWFUL in run defense in the 1st half - I have him at -7 over 18 attempts which is pathetic. That means he was making a mistake in run defense on nearly half his snaps. But in the 2nd half he turned it around and was +4 across 20 snaps - I specifically remember him making 2 back-to-back plays later in the game to make tackles out by the sideline after the edge lost contain.

His coverage wasn't anything special - just a -1 overall across 22 snaps. However I do have him at +0 in all all forms of zone coverage (15 snaps) and a -1 in just 7 man coverage attempts. One trend I noticed, we played Cover-1 on 14 snaps but Vigil was on the field for only 7 of those. For reference Pratt had nearly as many Cover-1 snaps (6) as Vigil (8). Are we making a conscious effort to keep Vigil off the field when we want to play Cover-1?

Preston Brown: Brown had a similar 1st half/2nd half improvement like Vigil, going -9 over 23 snaps in the 1st half to +4 over 26 the 2nd. Overall his run defense was still meh going -2 across 34 snaps, while his coverage stunk (-4 in 14 attempts). It is telling that we only had him on the field for 15 passing plays out of nearly 40 total - there's a concerted effort to get him off the field on passing downs. Also unlike Vigil he is equally bad in both zone (-3 over 10 snaps) and man coverage (-1 over 4 snaps).

Germaine Pratt: Pratt saw a lot of action this game as we used plenty of 4-3 sets when BAL was in 12 personnel. And based on what I saw he needs to be on the field more - +2 in run defense (11 snaps) and +0 in coverage (10 snaps). Honestly given the 0-6 start he needs to be starting full-time at WLB with Brown and Vigil splitting run/pass downs at MLB based on situation.

LaRoy Reynolds: Most of his usage (7 of 16 snaps) came in our dime package where he was the only LB on the field. He blitzed on 4 of those 7 and was quite effective (+3 grade), but other than being a dime package blitzer Reynolds offers next to nothing. I graded him at -3 over just 6 snaps when playing a normal LB role, -2 in 3 run snaps and -1 in 2 coverage snaps. He should not be on the field at all outside of that dime package.

CB:

William Jackson: He missed a handful of snaps with his shoulder injury but otherwise soldiered on. His run defense isn't great (-1 over 18 snaps), but he was pretty good in coverage. I have him at +0 in 13 zone snaps (mostly deep zone) compared to +3 in 14 man coverage.

Dre Kirkpatrick: Played just 17 snaps before hurting his knee and his run defense was pretty poor (-2 in just 7 snaps). However he made up for it with a pretty good start in coverage. He was a combined +4 in only 9 attempts with a +2 in zone (5 snaps) and a perfect +2/2 in man.

BW Webb: Filled in at CB2 after Dre's injury, and actually played CB1 for a bit when WJ3 was out. His run defense is okay - +1 over 16 snaps but he was better in the 2nd half (-1 vs +2). In coverage he was pretty average as well with a +0 in zone (10 snaps) and +2 in 19 man coverage attempts.

Tony McRae: McRae came on as the slot CB after Dre got hurt and Webb shifted outside, but he also played outside CB2 when WJ3 was out. Not much to go off for run defense (+0 over 4 snaps), but in coverage he was a serious downgrade over the top 3. I have him at -2 over 17 snaps that includes -1 in both zone and man. For comparison the top 3 corners were a combined +9 over 63 snaps.

Torry McTyer: No business being on an NFL field, but that should be expected given he was just signed as an injury replacement and only saw the field for 5 snaps after injuries to the 2 starters. He was -1 in 4 man coverage attempts - surprisingly we ran Cover-1 75% of McTyer's coverage snaps.

S:

Jessie Bates: IMO Bates played a very good game. His tackling is questionable but I still had him at +2 over 20 attempts on run defense. However in coverage his +11 over only 26 snaps is a great score. Most of that came in deep zone (+7 over 19 snaps) but he was VERY effective in man coverage from the slot (+4 in just 5 attempts). If we only had another safety who could play deep we could use him more in this role, but Williams is just not gonna cut it.

Shawn Williams: Speaking of Williams, he was an adequate +2 in 11 run defense snaps but only -1 over 16 attempts in coverage. He was -1 in 5 zone attempts and +0 in 8 man coverage snaps. His -1 came in a deep zone coverage, an area where he has a sizeable deficiency.

Brandon Wilson: Wilson surprisingly got a lot of play-time in this game, mainly because he started and played ahead of Williams due to the thigh injury that had Williams DNP/DNP/LP in practice. Wilson was...okay as a replacement. He made several boneheaded plays but also jumps off the tape from time to time. He run defense is a letdown from Williams (-1 over 25 snaps), but in coverage he was a combined +2 over just 19 attempts which is a considerable improvement. He was decent in both zone (+1 over 9) and man (+1 over 10). We should be using Wilson as a 3rd safety more frequently given the quality of our LBs. Williams can play full-time in the box and Bates/Wilson can swap interchangeably between FS and the slot.

Clayton Fejedelem: Played 11 of his 16 snaps in the 4Q when we ran more 3-4 because BAL was using 3TE sets to run out the clock. Because we were mainly using 3-4 as a 13 personnel counter, we only needed 1 CB to match the 1 WR so we went with 3 safeties instead. In the first 3 quarters those 3 safeties were usually Bates/Wilson/Williams, but in the 4th we swapped in Fej for Williams. This scheme related decision also shows itself in Fej's run/pass splits - he was on the field for 13 run plays and only 3 passes. 12 of those 13 run plays came as the 3rd safety in a 3-4 look.

Overall he was decent - his run defense was +2 (13 snaps) which is better than Wilson and makes him a more natural replacement for Williams. However he was -1 on just 2 coverage snaps because he blew a hook zone assignment where he was the hole defender in a Cover-1.

The 2nd half of the ARZ game only has 29 plays so hopefully I'll have that finished up later today and can update this post.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.