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Dolphins still favorites over Bengals to land first-overall pick

The Bengals still have the second-highest chance of getting the first overall pick in the 2020 draft according to ESPN’s FPI metric.

Miami Dolphins v Cincinnati Bengals Photo by John Grieshop/Getty Images

The lowly Dolphins managed to beat the even-lowlier Jets in Week 9, and that made the Bengals the last winless team in the NFL.

However, this may not be enough to get the Bengals the first-overall draft pick, according to ESPN.

ESPN’s Football Power Index, or FPI, simulated the remainder of the season 10,000 times. In most of those seasons, the Dolphins ended up with the top pick. The Dolphins’ average draft position was 2.5, while the Bengals’ was slightly higher at 2.7. This gave the Dolphins a 37.5% chance of ending up first overall, compared to the Bengals’ 32.7%.

This is probably because the Bengals play the Dolphins late in the season, so a win there would propel the Bengals into 31st place. There seems to be three-horse race to the bottom, between the Bengals, Dolphins, and Jets. Each team plays the others later on this season, so that will sort itself out sure enough.

The good news is that Jets and Dolphins also play each other once more, the week after the Jets play the Bengals. There’s still ample room for either of those teams to inch further away from the first pick.

For what it’s worth, the Redskins’ ADP is 3.8, with a 10.4% chance to get the top pick, while the Jets have an ADP of 4.6 and 11.2% chance of getting the first-overall pick.

So, while Week 16’s matchup between the Dolphins and Bengals won’t be a meeting between two winless teams, it may still decide who the biggest winner loser of the season is.