Bengals at Dolphins: Odds, expert picks and predictions

The Bengals and Dolphins have quite a bit of their futures riding on this game. Ironically, a win for either team would be detrimental to being able to possibly have the first-overall pick this offseason, but we aren’t here for that. We are here to see who the oddsmakers and experts picking the games think is the better team this week, and what you’ll find is there appears to be some disagreement between the experts and the oddsmakers/bettors.

Odds

The Bengals are currently one-point favorites, according to Bovada. This is one of the very rare instances where Cincinnati has actually been favored in a game this season. It really goes to show just how low of an opinion people have of the Dolphins.

Miami opened as three point favorites, but as the week has gone on, the odds have sifted (likely due to how people are betting) to make the Bengals the favorites.

Betting trends

• Cincinnati are 1-15 straight up in their last 16 games.
• Cincinnati are 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games against Miami.
• Cincinnati are 5-15 straight up in their last 20 games against Miami.
• Cincinnati are 0-12 straight up in their last 12 games on the road.
• Cincinnati are 1-7 straight up in their last eight games when playing on the road against Miami.
• The total has gone under in five of Cincinnati’s last six games against an opponent in the AFC East division.
• Cincinnati are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games played in December.
• Cincinnati are 9-0 against the spread in their last nine games played in week 16.
• Miami are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games.
• The total has gone over in four of Miami’s last five games.
• Miami are 3-14 straight up in their last 17 games.
• The total has gone under in five of Miami’s last five games against Cincinnati.
• Miami are 2-6 straight up in their last eight games at home.
• Miami are 7-1 straight up in their last eight games when playing at home against Cincinnati.
• The total has gone over in five of Miami’s last seven games this season.
• Miami are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games against an opponent in the AFC conference.
• Miami are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games against an opponent in the AFC North division.
• The total has gone OVER in five of Miami’s last seven games played in December.

Expert picks

• Fox Sports is predicting a 24.2 to 29.3 loss for the Bengals
• All nine of ESPN’s nine experts picked the Dolphins
• CBS Sports has two of their eight experts picking Cincinnati
• Only one of SB Nation’s eight experts took the Bengals
• NFL Pick Watch, which takes into account picks from across the web, has Cincinnati only receiving 17 percent of the picks

This is actually pretty shocking. An even split would’ve been more expected here considering how these two teams have played down the stretch. It could be that the home field advantage for the Dolphins is the tiebreaker in most experts’ minds, but especially given how the oddsmakers/bettors feel about the game, it is pretty shocking to see this game be viewed as this easy of a choice.