FanPost

Draft picks % rate of being a starter round by round based on last 50 years

With a number of events such as bowl games, combine, free agency, and experts beginning to produce their mock drafts, I've noticed a lot of chatter about packaging & trading picks and whether or not our Bengals draft well as the big day nears. Some teams notoriously use the free agency to get what they perceive as a guaranteed starter and are willing to pay the premium to ensure they get a proven product. Others, like the Bengals, are the polar opposite and build through the draft, which is why we covet compensation picks. Because our organization is such an extreme in this strategic choice, I thought I'd do some casual light hearted research to shed light on realistic expectations as we get close to the draft. And worst case scenario, it's something fun and interesting to think about!

This information was gathered from a few websites breaking down the data of the past 50 years of the draft. Personally, I feel the term "bust" is extremely subjective and biased with minimal information we have outside of the organization on what their actual intent of each pick is. I screened and cherry picked information that is quantitative and concrete.

% round by round a drafted player will become a starter for a least one year and start 40 games

1st round: 75%

2nd round: 55%

3rd round: 35%

4th round: 20%

5th round: 17%

6th round: 14%

7th round: 8%

With these percentages, if we stuck with our draft philosophy for a decade, we'd end up with a ball park:

7 starters round 1

5 starters round 2

3 starters round 3

2 starters round 4

2 starters round 5

1 starter round 6

1 starter round 7

Net total of 21 starters in 10 years of drafting.

Keep in mind this is going off numbers as if we only had one pick for each round. Also remember there are MANY more variables that are impossible to factor hard numbers. The average lifespan of a NFL player is 3.3 years. This does a relatively good job showing that the average yield of starters per draft doesn't supply enough to produce a competitive roster. It also does a good job of illustrating why being more active with higher tiered free agents is worth the gamble and price. Hence us living and dying by the draft and looking at the numbers to see why we've had much less success to other teams.

Another fun fact:

Using draft pick 148 which is roughly the end of the 4th round. Only 2 players in 50 years have started more than one year and played 40 games. Obviously there are diamonds in the rough 5-7 rounds that you could name, but this stat very strongly shows that they are just that; diamonds in the rough. This fact is important to us because it shows how insignificant the comp picks are. The higher the comp pick means that you let that much better of a starter leave. Point being, letting a starter that is 100% a starter leave for a 6th round pick that has 15% chance of turning into a starter isn't a good return. I know cap affects some decisions, but the good teams know how to and are willing to make it work far more than the Bengals.

Last item I came across that I found interesting. A percentage round vs round that end up going all pro. These numbers were pulled from 3 years of players in 2012-2014.

1st round: 48.5%

2nd round: 14%

3rd round: 8.8%

4th round: 7.0%

5th round: 5.3%

6th round: 3.5%

7th round: 1.2%

I'm sure you can nitpick and list one off examples. But for the greater good of entertaining conversations, I think these numbers confirm strong feelings I already have and open my mind to some thoughts I never considered. But I'm definitely going into this draft with a realistic mindset that the percentages help me simplify my grading:

F-0 starters, players cut, and players don't evolve

D-0 starters but a lot of good depth and special teams

C-1 starter

B-2 starters

A-3+ starters

I've always thought the Bengals draft decent. These numbers help justify that it's a crap-shoot and that we struggle just like almost every other team finding the next mid to late round gem. I still love every second of the draft and look forward to rooting on us drafting players every round with you all in April regardless of the percentage of them actually turning into something!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.