The Bengals 6-10 record in 2018 earned them the 11th overall selection in this year’s NFL Draft. This pick could be of high value, because it is a prime position for a team to trade up in order to select a quarterback — particularly if the Broncos do not take a quarterback with the 10th pick.
While Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray will be long gone; Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins, Missouri’s Drew Lock, or Duke’s Daniel Jones could be available. The clock will be ticking so the Bengals had better plan ahead for this scenario.
Lets’s just say that the Bengals are targeting a linebacker in the first round. Maybe LSU’s Devin White goes in the top five, but Michigan’s Devin Bush is still available at 11. Bush would likely survive for a few more picks, so the Bengals could trade down and still get him as long as they stayed in front of the Steelers and Ravens. This makes as the Dolphins (13th pick), Redskins (15th pick), and Giants (17th pick) are all potential trade partners.
The trade value chart is used to assess the value of individual draft picks and gauge what is fair compensation to move down in the draft. The Jets, Bills, Cardinals, and Ravens all traded up in the first round to draft quarterbacks last year. The Cardinals trading from 15th to 10th is the closest to the Bengals scenario, so let’s examine that one.
In 2018 the Cardinals traded up to the 10th overall pick from the 15th. According to the trade value chart the difference in value between these two picks was 250 which was the value of the 68th overall pick.
The actual compensation for the move was the 15th pick, the 79th pick (valued at 195) and the 152nd pick (valued at 30.2). So the Raiders got the short end of the stick according to the trade value chart. Let’s look at what a move to the 11th pick should cost the Dolphins, Redskins, or Giants.
Miami Dolphins - 13th pick
The Dolphins have moved on from Ryan Tannehill, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is just a placeholder. According to the chart, the difference between the Bengals 11th pick and the Dolphins 13th is 100. The Dolphins fourth-round (116) and fifth-round (151) selections total out to be a little over over 90. The Dolphins do not have a pick in the sixth round, so the deal would probably be something pretty similar to this.
Dolphins receive 11th overall pick; Bengals receive 13th overall, 116th overall, and 151st overall
Washington Redskins - 15th pick
With Alex Smith’s injury and age, the Redskins may look towards the future of the quarterback position in this year’s draft. The Redskins 15th pick is worth 200 less than the Bengals pick. Their third-round pick (76th overall) is worth 210. The Bengals may have to throw in one of their many sixth-round picks, but this is probably doable.
Redskins receiver 11th overall pick and 198th overall pick; Bengals receive 15th overall and 76th overall
New York Giants - 17th pick
If the Giants take an offensive lineman or edge rusher with their first pick, they may look to trade up a bit to get their quarterback. Their 17th overall selection is worth 300 less than the Bengals 11th overall. That is the equivalent of a late second-round pick.
Unfortunately, the Giants do not have one of those. They have a late third-round pick (95th overall). This could be packaged with their early fourth-round pick (108th overall) or their two early fifth-round picks (142nd and 143rd overall).
They have a lot of picks in this year’s draft, so that creates some options. Of course, the Bengals have a lot of picks too. They may be able to get the Giants to send them their 2020 second round pick.
Giants receive 11th overall pick; Bengals receive 17th overall, 95th overall, and 108th overall
Giants receive 11th overall pick; Bengals receive 17th overall, 95th overall, 142nd overall, and 143rd overall
Giants receive 11th overall pick; Bengals receive 17th overall and Giants 2020 second-round pick
Of course the Bills also traded up last year and gave up much more. The Bills had 12th overall selection and moved up to the seventh pick. This was a difference of 300. The Bills traded two second-round picks valued 710 in total to move up.
So there is a chance that someone could be so eager to get a given player, that they overspend and the Bengals could cash in, but the above scenarios set the benchmark. It would be a savvy move for the Bengals were able to trade down and pick up additional picks, while still getting the player they wanted all along.