FanPost

2020 Offseason Preview

So with the season currently wrapping up, I figured I'd start putting together some charts for the offseason. Going in draft order, that leaves us with....the Bengals!

So a couple of notes about what all is going on in these charts.

First, the "Draft" and "Acquire" columns tell when the player was drafted and how the team acquired him. A light blue color in the "Draft" column denotes a player who has been with the team since they were drafted. This helps see how teams build their rosters - more blue here means they rely on the draft, while more white would imply more reliance on free agency/trades. Any color in the "Acquire" column implies that player was added for the 2019 season, with more important additions shown in darker colors.

Next up is current salary cap information. This includes what type of contract the player is on, what their cap hit was this season vs in 2020, and then how much dead cap and potential savings are on the table. All of this information comes from OverTheCap. All current free agents for 2020 have been highlighted in the "Type" column, which each type getting a different color (UFA, RFA, EFA).

Following that is the real meat of this presentation - the snap counts and grading. Based on the current players on the roster, I have made my best guess at what I feel the 43-man roster would look like if we suited up for a game today (only 43 because I don't include special teams in my analysis yet). This assumes all players currently on I/R or PUP are healthy obviously. I've cut any extraneous players to get down to a 50-man active roster, and then made some guesses on inactives based on season trends. The same goes for the snap counts - I keep track of snap count distribution each week and have used that to forecast snap counts for this hypothetical game. I use the following scale when projecting snap counts:

Every-Down Starter = 100%

Full-Time Starter = 90%

Starter = 75%

Major Role Player = 50%

Role Player = 25%

Backup = 10%

Reserve/Inactive = 0%

Then, following that a grade I've assigned each player. I use several sources to help me arrive at a grade I feel comfortable with. These include my own eyes watching tape, PFF, FootballOutsiders, Madden etc. I grade on a A/B/C/D/F scale and make exceptions for a couple A+'s at each position for the true superstars.

So let's go position by position...

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QB: I've got Dalton remaining as the starter, because the point of this exercise means I can only pick from players who are currently rostered so until we draft Burrow, Dalton is the best option. His cap hit is not bad for a veteran QB and he's a much better option than Finley at the moment. For reference, I had Dalton as a B and Finley a C for week 1 but after watching both of them play this season they each dropped a letter grade.

RB: I don't foresee any change here. It seems unlikely they'll draft another RB after taking Anderson/Williams this year - both are more talented than typical 6th rounders so the hope is 1 of them stays healthy. Bernard is likely back for another year backing up Mixon. His $4m cap hit is a tad high but pretty much in line with what most teams pay for a "good" #2 back like Lewis, White, or Murray. Bernard has proven he can carry the load if Mixon misses a game or two. Anderson looked really good in the preseason last year so his health is a situation to monitor.

WR: We all know the only thing that matters here right now is AJ's contract situation. He should be back, which is why I have him forecasted at the top of the group, but if for some reason he isn't I think free agency is the only option here. They'll be hard-pressed to find an elite talent like AJ without using a top 10 pick, and drafting Burrow will throw that option out of the window. So the only way to find someone to replace AJ is to sign them off the street. But one thing is certain, after watching this season, the Bengals cannot "stand pat" if they let AJ walk. Boyd is a great #2 but not a #1 that scares defenses. Tate looked very good this season but he also isn't going to be a guy that draws safety help like AJ does. Ross looked pretty decent early this year but again succumbed to injuries and doesn't seem like he'll ever make good on his athleticism. Erickson is just a guy. What all 4 of these guys need is an elite #1 to draw consistent double-teams and open up the rest of the field for them.

TE: Don't really see any changes here either. I expect them to try and bring back Eifert again - I think the only reason they would "save" him by limiting reps in what amounted to a lost season, was to ensure a key piece was healthy for 2020. Uzomah is definitely overpaid, making what essentially is low-end #1 money, but I don't see him going anywhere given how concerned the team is with Eifert's health. Unless Sample seriously improves going into year 2, I don't see another option here. Carter is currently a RFA but he should be back as the team values his S/T - he was active every game this year despite not seeing many offensive snaps. He, Fej, and Evans were the top S/Ters in terms of snaps this season.

OL: So at this point I've considered Cordy to be a goner - either he's moved for a late-round pick or he'll wind up being a cap casualty given his entire $9.3m cap hit is available. Jonah slides in at LT and FJ heads to the bench as the swing tackle. This sends Jerry packing, as his services are no longer needed - he was already a healthy scratch in 4 of the last 5 after they added FJ to the active roster. This makes the top 8 pretty set in stone in my opinion. MJ, Hopkins, Miller, and Hart played almost every snap together the last 5 weeks except for when Miller got hurt. With Jonah sliding in at LT, that pretty much solidifies the starting 5. Not sure whether Price will retain his interior backup duties once Redmond is healthy - neither are any good and no one had the upper hand in terms of snaps. The only 3 games Redmond was active (6-8) he started at RG opposite Price who was temporarily starting over MJ. Either way, Price is pretty much guaranteed a spot at this point because of his ability to backup Hopkins as well as play guard. The 9th spot on the roster will be a tossup - Dugas looked better in the preseason but he's coming off an injury, meanwhile Prince was a 6th rounder and wasn't as good in the preseason but did start one game at RT for Miami this year.

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DT: Whether or not the team decides to resign Billings should tell you where the defensive scheme is headed. Last preseason I kept wondering why we had so many DTs on the roster - lo and behold we wound up playing a lot of 3-4ish fronts this season. It would be very easy for a cheap front office to wave bye-bye to Billings and bring back the much cheaper Tupou on an RFA deal to play NT. Glasgow and Wren are the backups and there's your 3 DTs behind Atkins - don't need any more than 4 in a 4-3 and Wren would be the gameday inactive. BUT, if Billings comes back I think it means we'll be trending towards a 3-4 again. As mentioned I think Tupou is a sure thing to get resigned, so we already have 4 guys on the roster. Adding a 5th on a larger vet contract makes no sense, unless they plan to put both Billings and Tupou on the field together a lot as they did this season. Glasgow and Wren both have potential - the former looked very good the first couple weeks before sustaining an injury, while the latter really came on towards the end of the season. I don't think they'll opt to keep a 6th DT, like 3-4 teams usually do, because of Brown's ability to play both inside and out.

ED: No changes here and while an argument could be made for Dunlap being a cap casualty I don't see it given the way he closed the season. He definitely seemed to be slowed by an injury for roughly a month in the middle of the year, but started and ended strong and is definitely the #1 edge threat. Hubbard and Lawson are good, with Lawson doing much better down the stretch when he didn't have to play a starting role, so I see no reason to shake anything up here. I do expect Lou to resign his guy Wynn, who actually looked better than I expected in the preseason, but letting him walk would open up a spot for a 3-4 edge guy.

LB: I saw some good and bad from both Vigil and Pratt this year. Pratt definitely showed improvement down the stretch, and the hope is he can continue to develop into a quality starting LB. Vigil just seems inconsistent in general - he would do better if allowed to operate in a part-time role like they had Pratt playing (2/3-3/4 snaps) instead of an every-down role. I have him forecasted to resign until they draft somebody to take his spot. And I feel that unless they draft somebody early (Day 2), Vigil is likely keeping his starting spot either way. I also expect the team to transition to a more hybrid 3-4 style front, so only 4 LBs make the cut so we can wave bye-bye to Nickerson again. Reynolds keeps his #4 spot for now thanks to his special teams - he ranked 4th on the team in S/T snaps. S/T is also why Evans sticks around, at least for one more year - he could be gone in 2021 after his contract expires but for now he's a cheap backup who plays a huge S/T role.

CB: The big shakeup here is Dennard, who I have projected to walk in free agency. He was nearly gone last offseason before the knee surgery basically forced him to return on a one-year rental. After making it through 2019 healthy and playing well, he should be considered all but gone as he'll want to pursue a full-time role. I also seriously considered make Dre a cap casualty as he's got $8.5m in savings available, but with Dennard gone I figured the team would be more likely to keep him. Not sure who they'll use as the nickel - Phillips played the majority of his snaps outside while Webb is mainly a slot guy. Webb has the "Lou Factor", but Phillips meteoric rise in play the last couple weeks could be a trend that winds up with him starting in the slot. McRae holds onto his #5 spot while playing primarily S/T, and Mabin beats out McTyer for the final gameday inactive role. All 3 of these guys are RFA's so it's not impossible to cut Dre, slide Phillips in as the starter, and keep this trio as the backups. Also there should be reinforcements on the way via the draft in the form of a late-round pick.

FS: Another case here where I think Williams is likely gone but I can't remove him until they add somebody to replace him. However $4.5m is not a terrible high amount to pay for a starting safety, but with $4m+ available in savings it does put a bullseye on him. Fej is the natural replacement for him and should be considered a lock to be resigned given his value on S/T, with Wilson serving more as a backup deep safety. It's possible a Day 2 pick gets spent here, which would easily eliminate the need for Williams.

Draft Strategy: The biggest weakness right now is obviously QB, which will be rectified when they draft Burrow. After that I'd be interested in spending Day 2 picks at any of the following: OL, LB, SS. There should be plenty of quality T/Gs available in the late 1st/early 2nd. It's unlikely we draft a starting tackle with Hart there, but it is possible. It's also possible to draft another G to start ahead of MJ or possibly take Miller's spot. Doesn't matter where, but they should try to add a 1st round caliber lineman with our 2nd rounder. After that I'd be fine going LB or SS in round 3 to bulk up either of those positions. On Day 3 I'd look to add another WR and CB for depth, as well as a smaller 3-4 end type.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan, which is as important as the views of Cincy Jungle's writers or editors.