Bengals vs. Titans: Betting trends, expert picks and predictions

When you have a team like the Titans visiting the Bengals is isn’t surprising to see the oddsmakers and experts feel pretty one-sided about the matchup. Cincinnati has blown a couple of games in a row, and Tennessee is one of the better teams in the AFC who may end up being players once the playoffs roll around again. The odds are stacked against the Bengals’ this week, but can they manage to pull off the upset or keep things close?

Odds

The Bengals are currently six-point underdogs at home, according to Bovada. That is a pretty significant line as usually home teams have a slight advantage inherently. It isn’t that surprising though given how great of an offense the Titans have, and how poorly the Bengals defense has been at getting stops the past two weeks.

What may be the more interesting the Over/Under is set at 52.5 points. There is almost no question that the Titans will be able to get to 30 points, and Joe Burrow and the Bengals should be able to cook a little bit against a less than stellar Titans’ defense. It seems fairly likely that both teams get into the 30’s like Cincinnati and Cleveland did last week given that neither defense has performed that great as of late.

Betting trends

• Cincinnati are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games.
• The total has gone over in eight of Cincinnati’s last 11 games.
• Cincinnati are 3-16-1 straight up in their last 20 games.
• The total has gone over in four of Cincinnati’s last five games at home.
• The total has gone under in seven of Cincinnati’s last eight games when playing at home against Tennessee.
• Cincinnati are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games this season.
• Cincinnati are 3-17 straight up in their last 20 games against an opponent in the AFC.
• Cincinnati are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against an opponent in the AFC South.
• Cincinnati are 0-6 straight up in their last six games played in November.
• Tennessee are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games.
• The total has gone over in four of Tennessee’s last five games.
• Tennessee are 5-1 straight up in their last six games.
• Tennessee are 7-1 straight up in their last eight games on the road.
• The total has gone under in seven of Tennessee’s last eight games when playing on the road against Cincinnati.
• Tennessee are 4-1 straight up in their last five games this season.
• The total has gone over in 10 of Tennessee’s last 15 games against an opponent in the AFC.
• Tennessee are 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games against an opponent in the AFC North.

Expert picks

• None of ESPN’s 10 experts took a chance on the Bengals
• SB Nation has two experts taking Cincinnati in the upset
• All of CBS Sports’ seven experts went with the Titans
• NFL Pick Watch, which takes into account picks from across the web, has the Bengals receiving three percent of the picks this week.

After blowing two late leads the last two weeks and only managing one win on the season, it isn’t a surprise to see the experts not have much faith in the Bengals pulling off an upset against the Titans who have been on a serious tear going all the way back to last season that resulted in them getting to the AFC Championship game. Meanwhile, the Bengals have continued their momentum from last season, but and upset against a team like the Titans could hopefully be a catalyst for this young team.

Prediction

Burrow and this offense have really been clicking for most of this season. Now that rookie wide Receiver Tee Higgins and A.J. Green have also started to build their chemistry with the rookie along with Tyler Boyd, the offense has really taken off. The offensive line has even been better the past couple of weeks, which has as much to do with their play as it does play calling and Burrow’s decision making becoming more decisive. That will really get put to the test this week with three starters from last week likely to be out.

The real issue for this game comes with how well can the Bengals defense bounce back from an embarrassing ending the past two weeks. After the first quarter last week against the Browns, Cincinnati never stopped Cleveland’s offense from scoring a touchdown. That included a drive when the Browns just needed a field goal in a little over a minute to tie.

This week the defense will have to deal with Derrick Henry, the toughest player to tackle in the NFL, the current NFL rushing leader. They will also have to stop Ryan Tannehill who has been able to take advantage of all the focus Henry gets from defenses. It is a tall task for any defense much less one that has been struggling.

This game has all the making of a shootout, but that doesn’t favor the team struggling to create stops on defense. The Bengals offense has also had some streaks of struggling to finish drives in the end zone. That is a formula to be in plenty of games but not to win.

Titans 38 Bengals 31