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Analytics model touts Joe Burrow as top-5 QB prospect since 2005

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The math checks out!

College Football Playoff National Championship - Clemson v LSU Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

By now, Joe Burrow has established himself as the consensus top quarterback in this year’s NFL Draft class. How he compares to quarterback prospects of recent years past isn’t necessarily relevant for his evaluation, but it is fun to learn where he would stack up by select metrics.

Rotoworld’s Hayden Winks developed a top-300 big board for the 2020 draft class that not only has Burrow taking the top spot, but as the fourth-best quarterback by his model since the 2005 draft class.

One of the quarterbacks ranked above Burrow in Winks’ database hasn’t exactly had a great career, but the LSU star is ahead of the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson; each of whom have claimed a top-10 spot.

Age-based production is also heavily weighted in Winks’ model, so Burrow’s historical 2019 season wasn’t diluted due to the fact that he finished it as a 23-year old.

Quarterback production in general isn’t nearly tied to age as much as it is for other positions, but it can have an effect. As an example, Jalen Hurts’ young age helped him out in these rankings, so it’s good to see it not matter much for Burrow specifically.

The box scores and the metrics that transcend them all tell us that Burrow is the main man at quarterback in this draft and, at least using this methodology, is a better prospect than Chase Young when accounting for value.

And no, the Bengals don’t need to read this to tell you that with confidence. Deangelo Hall might, though.