What is less surprising than the Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow having an impressive next gen stat coming out to improve how good he is?
I don’t know but there aren’t many. The most recent to come out is Burrow leading all quarterbacks in the amount of games where they had positive completion percentage over expectation.
Same old, same old Joe Burrow genius per Next Gen Stats pic.twitter.com/dqU62ZgyyM— Matt Minich (@CoachMinich) February 2, 2022
This stat is pretty easy to calculate. You compare the quarterback’s actual completion percentage against their expected completion percentage. The expected completion percentage is based on things like a receiver’s separation from a defender and a quarterback’s separation from pass rushers at the time of throwing the ball.
Burrow also led all quarterbacks in the regular season with a CPOE of +6, so the fact he also leads the NFL in the number of positive games. This stat does a great job of showing off how well Burrow is able to get rid of the ball under pressure as well as how he can fit the ball in some tight windows with his accuracy.
The person who beat Burrow during the Conference Championships in CPOE will be on the opposite sideline of Super Bowl 56 — Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. He had +8.6, which is obviously an extremely incredible number. However, Stafford had -0.6 CPOE during the regular season.
It looks like we could see a game that comes down to which one of these quarterbacks is able to overcome the opposing defenses more. If that does end up being the case, the steadiness of Burrow could give the Bengals a better chance than the inconsistencies that Stafford brings.